Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Alright so it's a pretty boring week for the PP's as for the first time there are no new teams into the playoff bracket, on either side. Additionally in the AL there wasn't even any change within who would win each series. I did consider putting the Rays over the Rangers in the ALDS but I held off ... for now. I also considered giving the Baltimore Orioles a nod over the Tigers but once again I couldn't do it. I just cannot accept the fact that the Orioles are going to enter September that close to a playoff spot. They've had a great season and I continue to deny them (and likely will deny them in the future). It's the Orioles though, come on! They can't be making the playoffs, can they?

National League

The NL bracket harbored the only change this week. The Dodgers (an their massive trade) has propelled them over the Nationals in the NLDS. If Strasburg were to pitch in that series (which he won't) I would pick the Nats. The Pirates are breaking my and have fallen 2.0 games behind the Cards. It's a shame and I hope they recover but I certainly cannot predict that they will.

World Series

For the first time in the PP's I will predict the World Series.

The Rangers get back for a 3rd straight season and they have to win one eventually, right? Wrong. The Cincinnati Reds are your 2012 World Series Champions.

The Reds are the more complete team and presuming they stay healthy the rest of the way have a great chance to win their first World Series since 1990.

If the Rangers had better pitching they'd have the edge in the series. The problem is Yu Darvish appears to be wearing down. He hasn't pitched well in the second half. Ryan Dempster has been pretty terrible in Texas. Roy Oswalt has done nothing. Scott Feldman and Derek Holland both have ERAs approaching 5. The only good starter right now is Matt Harrison.

The Reds don't have a Nationals-esque rotation behind Johnny Cueto but it is still better than the Rangers.

The Rangers would hold the edge on offense and that could pose a threat to the Reds pitching staff and World Series aspirations.

All in all another heartbreaking 7 game series loss for the Rangers.

AL East: Can the Rays Catch the Yankees?

There's an interesting scenario brewing in the AL East as the Tampa Bay Rays are returning to form. The Rays are winners of their last 5 and 8 of their last 10. They've cut the Yankees lead down to 4.0 games in the AL East.

The New York Yankees have been in control of the East for most of the summer (they've owned sole possession since June 12th). The four game lead they currently own going into play on Tuesday is the smallest lead they've held since June 29th.

It begs the question, can the Rays chase down the Yankees and make a race out of the AL East?

Well first of all if I've learned anything about baseball, and more specifically the Rays, it's that you can never count them out. Never mind the 9 game deficit they overcame in September 2011 to win the Wild Card on the final day of the season, what about this season? Almost one month ago (July 18th) the Rays looked dead to rights in the East sitting 10.5 games back of the Yankees. They've closed 6.5 games in just over a months time so of course they could make a race of the East and of course they could win ... but will they?

The Yankees appear to have the easier schedule the rest of the way. Both teams do play the exact same amount of games (40 apiece) with 6 against each other. The Yankees however have 22 games against teams that are out of contention. They have the Indians (3 times), Jays (10), Red Sox (6) and Twins (3).

The Rays meanwhile only have 16 games against teams out of contention, the Royals (3), Jays (7) and Red Sox (6).

In the six games difference (between the Yankees 22 games vs the Rays 16 games against teams out of contention) the Rays face off against AL West leading Texas.

So the schedule favors the Bronx Bombers. They have a four game lead and an easier schedule the rest of the way.

Will it be the difference in the East? Maybe, but don't count out those Rays.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 19th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Once again, for the second straight week, there's a change in the American League. The Tigers have won a spot over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Playoff game. The A's haven't been playing as well of late and while they are only 0.5 games out of a WC spot the Tigers sit a half game behind them. The Tigers are just a much more dangerous team and because of it they get the nod this week. However I still have them losing to the Rays in the WC Playoff. For the A's it's the first time they find themselves off the bracket since July 28th while the Tigers find themselves on for the first time since that same date. There aren't any other changes in the AL. However I will mention that this is the 3rd straight week the Rangers have been given the nod as AL Champs, the longest such stretch since the PP's started five weeks ago.

Once again I cannot find it possible to put the Orioles into a WC spot. I just can't do it. They continue to stick around though and maybe, just maybe, they'll be there eventually. 

National League

The NL has seen the some of the biggest changes since the PPs started. There's movement all over the bracket.

First the Pirates have been bumped from the bracket for the first time. They had been one of the WC teams in each of the previous four weeks. The Dodgers are making their first appearance in the bracket as the winners of the NL West. They get the nod because of their play lately but also because of Melky Cabrera's suspension. The defending World Series Champion Cardinals are making their first appearance on the bracket as well. They are suddenly one game out of a WC spot and at this point it's hard to deny them a place, no matter how much I want the Pirates to make the playoffs for the 1st time in 20 years. However the Cards will still lose to the Braves in the WC Playoff. The Nationals one week reign as NL Champs is over. The Reds struggled a little bit last week which caused the change. Also the Nats continued stance on Stephen Strasburg hurts their chances come October. The Reds are therefore representing the NL for the 4th time in 5 brackets.

Starting in September I will also include predictions for who will win the World Series as that is something that has been absent in the PPs.

Melky Cabrera in More Hot Water

If things weren't bad enough for Giants OF Melky Cabrera after being suspended for 50 games for testing positive for testosterone the NY Daily News has uncovered some interesting "facts". It just adds fuel to the already burning fire.

Allegedly Cabrera had a consultant who works with his agents set up a fake website for a product to somehow support his claim that he inadvertently took the substance which lead to his suspension.

MLB quickly realized what was happening and didn't fall for the fake site. Allegedly this took place in July during the fact-finding stage of the case.

Federal investigators now seem to be interested in the case.

Uh oh Melky. That big fat free agent check just keeps shrinking, don't it?

Ozzie Guillen Has Harsh Words (Surprise, Surprise) For Ramirez

The Miami Marlins might have been an utter disappoint in the NL East this season but their manager Ozzie Guillen continues to entertain.

His latest target, former Marlin, the Dodgers Hanley Ramirez. Guillen had this to say about his former 3B, "That's Hanley. (If) Hanley hit a home run down by 30 runs, he would pimp it. That's the way he is."

It doesn't surprise me Hanley's former manager feels this way. Ramirez is regarded around MLB as a toxic personality and influence in the clubhouse. When the Marlins were still "Florida" they disciplined Ramirez for repeatedly not hustling to first base.

Astros Can Their Manager; Hardly Seems Fair

Late Saturday night/early Sunday morning the Houston Astros announced yet another move and no this time they hadn't traded someone. Instead they fired Manager Brad Mills and two of his coaches.

It hardly seems as though Mills was at fault for the poor performance of the Astros. Their current record sits at 39-82.

Yes, that's an awful record and in most other circumstances a manager would get fired for a record that looked like that. However after the team was gutted before the trade deadline there was little talent left on the major league roster. Most fans probably mistake the 'stros for a AAA team. Only one player on their 25 man roster (Ben Francisco) is making more than $750,000. Their two highest paid players are both on the DL (Francisco Cordero and Jed Lowrie). The total payroll is a mere $21.3 million.

The fact that Cordero and Lowrie are there two highest paid players should tell you all you need to know about the state of the Astros right now.

Along with Mills hitting coach Mike Barnett and first base coach Bobby Meacham were fired.

Mills was in his third season with the team having gone 76-86 in 2010 and a franchise worst 56-106 last season.

Tough luck for Mills. When he was hired I'm sure he didn't expect the higher ups would complete gut his roster and give him no hope to succeed and subsequently fire him when he didn't work miracles.

Tis the way of the big leagues though. 

King Felix is now Perfect

The Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners have been involved in awful lot of no-hitters and perfect games the last few seasons. Now a Perfect Game has been thrown in a game contested by the two teams. That's right the third perfect game of the season was thrown today by Mariners Pitcher Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez needed to be perfect as the Mariners offense provided little support in a 1-0 victory.

It's the third game this season the Mariners have been involved in that resulted in a no-hitter or a perfect game. On April 21st Philip Humber of the White Sox tossed the first perfect game of the 2012 season at Safeco Field. On June 8th six Mariners pitchers combined for a no-hitter. Starter Kevin Millwood left the game because of injury. Before this season the Mariners hadn't been involved in a no-hitter or perfect game in 16 years.

For the Rays it is the 5th no-hitter or perfect game they've been involved in since 2009.

It started on a Perfect Game thrown by Mark Buehrle of the White Sox on July 23rd 2009. Then the very next Perfect Game in MLB History came on May 9 2010 when Dallas Braden of the A's threw one against the Rays. Later that season, on June 25th, former Rays pitcher Edwin Jackson (at the time with Arizona) threw a no-hitter against the Rays. Nearly one month later on July 26th Matt Garza threw a no-hitter for the Rays against the Tigers. In 2011 the Rays avoided being no-hit.

It seems awfully strange to see two teams be so involved in such rare feats over the course of a few months and seasons.

Anyway, congratulations to Hernandez. 

Melky Cabrera Suspended 50 Games

San Francisco Giants OF Melky Cabrera has been suspended by MLB for violating the leagues Performance Enhancing Drug Policy.

Cabrera has this to say, "my positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used. I am deeply sorry for my mistake."

As the Giants have 45 games remaining in the regular season Cabrera will be ineligible to play for the remainder of the season. He'll also miss the beginning of the playoffs, assuming the Giants make the postseason.

The suspension comes as a significant blow to a Giants offense that had struggled for most of the season (although since the All-Star Break they do lead the NL in runs per game).

The Giants are currently tied for the NL West lead with the L.A. Dodgers. 

Melky has a career .752 OPS so his .902 line this season could certainly have raised some suspicions around the league.

Note: At the time of his suspension Cabrera was leading the NL in Hits (159) and was second in average (.346). His .906 OPS was good enough for 8th in the NL.

Red Sox Players Lead Coup Against Bobby-V

According to a report by Jeff Passan on Yahoo! Sports there was a secret meeting held between Red Sox ownership and some players, including Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, on July 26 to discuss disdain for their manager.

It's the latest in a series of bad relations between troops and leader in a clubhouse that is crumbling from within.

The report also suggests that their is not only a unified dislike of Bobby Valentine among the players but also grudges being held between players. The situation is a mess.

GM Ben Cherington confirmed the meeting although gave a very non specific answer about details.

"The intent of the meeting was to provide a forum for people to express whatever frustration needed to be expressed at a time during the season when things were not going exactly the way we wanted to on the field in hopes that we could put whatever issues were there aside and focus on playing games the rest of the season. That was the intent of the meeting. That was the focus of ownership. It was a productive meeting."

It's hard to believe the Red Sox are in worse shape in 2012 than they were at the end of last season when they completed their historic collapse but here we are. The team isn't performing. They clearly don't like or trust their manager. Changes once again will have to be made (both to the roster and to the coaching staff).

Bobby Valentine was the anti-Francona when he was hired by Boston ownership. It seemed like the right move at the time. It seemed as though it was exactly what was needed in the Red Sox clubhouse to fix any lingering issues.

It clearly has not worked.

Valentine appears to be the manager through the end of the 2012 season ... appears to be.

That will change come the off-season. The Red Sox will fire him and try to wipe their hands clean of an awful 2012 campaign. While it's the right move and it will need to be made is Bobby Valentine really the bad guy here?

Certainly he's part of the problem but what about the players, what role do they have in this matter?

Clearly the players think they run the show and own the clubhouse. Making Valentine a scapegoat only covers up deeper rooted issues. The next manager, whomever it will be, is going to have the same problems that Valentine has faced this season and that Terry Francona faced before him. The so-called star players who do not care about their job and under perform.

The Red Sox would be lying if they said they were not aware of these players who are causing problems. Ben Cherington practically begged other teams to take Josh Beckett off his hands at the deadline (apparently offering to eat a ton of salary to get rid of him) but to no avail.

DL'd SP John Lackey created another media storm last week upon being spotted in the clubhouse double fisting after a loss last week. In two seasons in Boston Lackey has been down right awful and like Beckett doesn't appear to care.

The two of them anchored the collapse in 2011.

So fire Bobby V, he deserves it. There's far bigger problems in Boston though.

Blue Jays RP Ks 4 in an Inning

On Monday night Toronto Blue Jays RP Steve Delabar accomplished a feat that no other pitcher in the history of Major League Baseball has done ... struck out four batters in an extra inning.

Top of the 10th Inning

There's how the inning went.

Delabar also became the first Blue Jays pitcher to ever strike out four in a single inning.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 12th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Some change, albeit only one new team, but it causes a change in the bracket. The Tampa Bay Rays are making their first appearance on the PP's this season. They've been playing well of late and have surged into a tie for the WC lead. They're a team that was expected to compete for a playoff spot prior to the beginning of the season and now in mid-August they appear to be there. The victims of the Rays being promoted are the Angels. Two weeks ago I had the Angels in the World Series and now I don't even have them playing in the 1-game WC Playoff. Things change quick.

Just like last week I still have the Rangers representing the AL. Despite the fact they have a new opponent (the Rays as opposed to the White Sox) in the first round I still think they are the team to beat in the AL. The Yankees manage to get past the White Sox.

The A's still cling to a spot in the bracket but I fear that could change in the coming weeks.

National League

Or should I say the "Nationals League" ... haha (blank stare). Yes bad joke but that's how things are shaping up. For the first time since I created the PP's a mere 3 weeks ago the Cincinnati Reds are not the NL representative in the World Series. The Nationals strong play as of late necessitated the change.

Nothing else changed in the NL bracket however I should mention I did seriously consider swapping the Pirates and the defending Champ Cardinals. For this week I'll leave the Pirates in the second WC but I'm predicting that spot could change quite a bit over the final seven weeks of the season.

MLB Power Rankings

Once again there's a new team atop the Rankings as the Nationals have surged past last week's #1 the Reds.

Aside from the top spot being in constant movement the last few weeks there is an ongoing shift throughout the rest of the Top 15 teams. With the added Wild Card and teams having hot and col stretches teams are flying up and down the rankings. The bottom half is actually much more stable than the top half.

The biggest reason is the glut of teams in the 8 through 15 spots. All 8 teams are in playoff contention and have almost identical records. From week to week they make pushes forward while some cool off a drop back.

The Angels are a prime example having fallen out of the Top 10 going from 7 to 13 this week. The Cardinals on the other hand make their first appearance in the Top 10 this season having swapped spots with the Angels, moving from 13 into the 7th spot. The Braves moved one spot up and make their first appearance in the Top 5 this season.

Let's get on with the rest of the rankings.

1. Washington Nationals (70-43) Last week: 2 - Stephen Strasburg is now at 133.1 IP for the season. Can the Nationals really afford to shut him down at 160 or 180 (whatever the number is now)?

2. Cincinnati Reds (67-46) Last week: 1 - Had lost 4 in a row before beating the Cubs on Friday. Fortunately their next 10 games are against the Cubs and Mets.

3. New York Yankees (66-46) Last week: 3 - The lead in the East is down to 5.5 games (over the Orioles). On July 18th that lead was almost double (10 games).

4. Texas Rangers (65-46) Last week: 4 - Are 6-3 since the trade deadline and have extended their lead in the West back up to a healthy 5.5 games.

5. Atlanta Braves (65-47) Last week: 6 - How amazing has closer Craig Kimbrel been this season? He's sporting a 1.26 ERA with 31 saves. He's struck out 75 batters and only walked 11 in 43 IP.

Chicken and Beer Scandal Returns to Red Sox

According to a report on Boston.com at least one half of the Chicken and Beer scandal has made a return to the Red Sox clubhouse.

After a 5-3 loss to the Indians last night SP John Lackey, who is out for the season, was seen walking aroung the clubhouse "double-fisting".

Lackey has been on the DL since undergoing Tommy John surgery in February but has traveled with the team for the majority of the season. He was one of the three pitchers who took the majority of the blame for the Chicken and Beer episode last September when the Red Sox collapsed and missed the playoffs. In March new manager Bobby Valentine banned all alcohol from the clubhouse as a result of the previous season.

The Red Sox signed Lackey to a 5-year/$82.5 million dollar deal as a free agent in December of 2009. In his first two seasons with Boston he started 61 games, posted a 26-23 record with an awful, awful 5.26 ERA. In his previous 8 seasons with the Angels his ERA was 3.81 in 234 appearances.

Lackey has two more seasons remaining on his deal and is owed $30.5 million.

It's hard to imagine a guy who's not even on the active roster is causing problems for a team who is a walking soap opera.

It's just one more issue to add to the on-going drama that is the Boston Red Sox the last two seasons.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 4th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

I've been losing faith in the Angels for the last few weeks but continued to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. My World Series representative in the AL is now going to be bounced from the playoffs in the ALDS by the Yankees. I still think the Angels will end up winning one of the two Wild Card spots and manage to secure a victory in that matchup.

It was hard for me to choose who to take in the AL after bumping the Angels. I don't think the Yankees are strong enough to make the World Series but I also fear how difficult it might be for the Rangers to make their third straight.

I left the Tigers in last week despite falling out of the lead in the AL Central. They still haven't climbed back into the lead and as such I had to bring back the White Sox as the division winners there.

National League

The National League hasn't seen any changes this week. I'm convinced the Giants and Dodgers are going to battle it out for the remainder of the season in the West. For now I will give the Giants the nod but I feel like the Dodgers will be in that spot sooner rather than later. The NL is suddenly looking like the stronger league with the likes of the Reds, Nationals and Braves all in playoff contention. Even the Pirates look like they could make noise this season.

MLB Power Rankings

Having seen the July 31st Trade Deadline come and go a number of teams have positioned themselves for a run at October. Of course that also means a number of teams appear to have accepted their fate - a season without playoff baseball.

We have a new #1 atop the rankings in the form of the Cincinnati Reds. They've been surging lately and hold the best record in the Majors.

The biggest fall belongs to the Detroit Tigers who appeared as they'd returned to form. They've since dropped back in the standings and subsequently these rankings. They fell seven spots from 5 to 12.

1. Cincinnati Reds (62-41) Last week: 4 - A 19-7 month of July has seen the Reds rocket to the top of the standings in the NL. As of the moment they appear to be the team to beat in the NL.

2. Washington Nationals (61-41) Last week: 3 - Stuck behind the Yankees and Rangers in the Rankings for a month the Nats have finally surged into 2nd as they have a better record than both AL foes.

3. New York Yankees (60-43) Last week: 1 - Since Ichiro joined the Bombers they've gone 3-5 and ichiro has only scored 3 runs. Not exactly what they were hoping for.

4. Texas Rangers (59-43) Last week: 2 - The Rangers were easily the most active at the deadline rumored to be involved in talks for Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett. They didn't get either but won the Dempster sweepstakes.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (59-44) Last week: 6 - OF Travis Snider needed a fresh start after being up and down from the minors with Toronto. Now the Pirates OF is packed with young talent.