The MLB Trade Deadline is quickly approaching and the Boston Red Sox find themselves consistently flirting with the .500 mark. After Sunday's loss the Red Sox found themselves swept away - at home no less - by the division rival Blue Jays. The Jays came into Fenway having been swept be the East leading Yankees and looked primed to take a pounding. Instead it was the Red Sox pitching staff who took the beating.
GM Ben Cherington has nine days left to figure out what to do with this team. Does he try to add to the roster and make a run at one of the Wild Card spots? The Red Sox are within striking distance afterall finding themselves 3.5 back. On the flip side of that there are 8 teams all within that same distance of the two Wild Card spots. The Red Sox have, as one would expect, almost a .500 record against those teams (25-26). This team, which is largely the same in 2012, blew a massive lead in the Wild Card in 2011. The result was wholesale changes on the management side of things. It could be time to look at the players themselves and make wholesale changes on the field.
If Cherington decides to add to the team, what are moves are likely? Adding pitching help seems the most likely. The likes of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels are going to command top level prospects - something the Red Sox don't have a lot of - and are going to have a number of contenders bidding for their services. It then begs the question who gets bumped from the rotation should the Sox acquire one of these starters? Franklin Morales has already been bumped back to the bullpen despite being one of the Red Sox stronger options the last month or so. The likely candidates become Aaron Cook or Felix Doubront. It would seem unwise to drop one of those two guys from the rotation as they both possess earned run averages lower than the other Red Sox starters, Beckett, Lester and Buchholz, who are supposed to be the ace. Doubront has a 4.24 ERA, Cook has a 3.50 ERA. While they're not spectacular numbers they're better than the 4.53, 5.46 and 5.19 ERAs put up by Beckett, Lester and Buchholz respectively. It seems highly unlikely that, despite their awful performances this season, that either of those three would be bumped to the bullpen.
No, adding pitching doesn't really help the team unless those three start pitching better.
The solution then becomes a clear one, even if it is not simple. Blowup this roster and start again.
The Yankees are running away with the division and although they have an aging roster they have a number of talented young pitchers that will anchor their rotation (injured Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova) into the future. They'll always have the money to acquire offense if their current stars begin to falter.
The Orioles have had a wonderful season and continue to stay alive in the playoff chase despite injuries and and ranking in the bottom third in offensive and pitching categories. While they may not pose a legitimate threat this season they're certainly an up and coming squad.
The Rays have a ton of young starting pitchers and could leverage any of them and turn them into the offense they've been desperately lacking this season. Or they could just wait it out and see what happens when 3B Evan Longoria returns (he's been out since May 1st with a hamstring injury). They're a team that has made the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 seasons and were considered to be a threat to win the division this season.
Just like the Red Sox the Blue Jays have floated around .500 for most of the season. However they are a much younger team and have suffered injuries three of their five starters, two of which are season ending. Their offense is young and consistently improving. While they might not make the playoffs this season they're a team that's going to contend very, very soon.
Where does that leave the Red Sox? They have a number of large contracts with aging stars. Aside from 3B Will Middlebrooks (23) and SP Felix Doubront (24) there isn't much youth on the Major League roster. Their "stars" are all approaching 30 or older. In August Crawford will turn 31, Pedroia will turn 29 and Buchholz will turn 28. In September Ellsbury will turn 29. Gonzalez and Beckett are both 30+. Lester is 28. They do not have a single prospect in MLB's Top 100. C Ryan Lavarnway is pretty much Major League ready, one of their few prospects that is, and he's going to be 25. There's a lot of money tied up in aging stars and not a lot of youth to infuse into the roster.
Realistically the Red Sox do not appear talented enough to make a long run into October. They certainly possess the ability to sneak into one of the Wild Cards and maybe they win the one game playoff. Assuming they could do that they'd likely find themselves up against the two-time defending AL Champion Texas Rangers, a far superior club (the Sox open a three game series in Texas on Monday).
It'd be a tough sell to the players, fans and media but it certainly seems as though this Red Sox team needs a revamp.
Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have been downright awful this season. Over the weekend both pitched against the Blue Jays and both lost. Beckett allowed 4 ER (5 total runs) over 6 innings on Friday night. He took the loss as the Red Sox fell 6-1. On Sunday Lester took to the mound have owned the Jays in his career. He allowed a career high 11 ER in 4 innings including 4 home-runs. Neither will have the kind of trade value they should possess because of their rough seasons. With some many teams in contention this season though it's possible Cherington could unload both of them for teams desperate for pitching. However unlike other options available through trade both Beckett and Lester are signed through 2014. If a team is wary to acquire a Dempster, Garza, Greinke or Hamels because of pending free agency Beckett and/or Lester could be an intriguing option.
DH David Ortiz is having a great season. His contract runs out at the end of the 2012 season. Any team looking for middle of the order power would sure love to get their hands on Ortiz. He's had a wonderful run in Boston but at 36 (37 in the off-season) he simply does not fit into the Red Sox long-term plans. He definitely should be shopped around.
The tougher decisions come with the likes of Ellsbury, Crawford and Gonzalez.
Can the Red Sox afford to sign Ellsbury to a long-term deal. More importantly, do they want to? His 2011 season was the best of his career but otherwise he's been injured. He's a great talent and could bring a lot in return if he can continue to hit before the deadline.
Crawford and Gonzalez are both signed to long-term contracts through 2017 and 2018, respectively. Their were rumors swirling around last week that the Red Sox were in talks with the Marlins about a trade involving Crawford and Hanley Ramirez. Ben Cherington shot those rumors down insisting that Crawford is and would continue to be the Red Sox LF. Gonzalez on the other hand has seemingly lost his power since joining the Red Sox last season. In the spacious Petco Park in San Diego Gonzalez had four straight seasons of 30+ HRs. Fans salivated over the prospect of what he'd accomplish in a much smaller Fenway. The results haven't been good. Between two seasons, totaling 252 games, with the Red Sox Gonzalez has only managed to knock out 36 HRs total. They wouldn't be easy contracts to move and neither players hold the value that was expected of them when they signed these massive deals.
There are other pieces that could easily be moved but wouldn't bring a whole lot back in return. Pieces in the bullpen could be had, guys like Matt Albers, Andrew Miller, Vincente Padilla and Alfredo Aceves are expendable. OF Cody Ross has had a strong season but is only signed for 2012. Despite missing time on the DL Ross has hit 16 HR. A team looking for a corner outfielder with some pop would like send a decent prospect in return. Guys like Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Nick Punto, Kelly Shoppach and even Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Aaron Cook aren't likely to figure in any long-term plans or success. For the right price they could be available too.
It's not a simple choice but it is a necessary one. This team has proven time and time again that they are not a true contender. They are far too inconsistent and likely to be passed by all four teams in their division.
Blowing up the roster and spending a few years in the basement of the AL East may not be a popular decision but ultimately it is what is best for the club.
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