Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 4th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

I've been losing faith in the Angels for the last few weeks but continued to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. My World Series representative in the AL is now going to be bounced from the playoffs in the ALDS by the Yankees. I still think the Angels will end up winning one of the two Wild Card spots and manage to secure a victory in that matchup.

It was hard for me to choose who to take in the AL after bumping the Angels. I don't think the Yankees are strong enough to make the World Series but I also fear how difficult it might be for the Rangers to make their third straight.

I left the Tigers in last week despite falling out of the lead in the AL Central. They still haven't climbed back into the lead and as such I had to bring back the White Sox as the division winners there.

National League

The National League hasn't seen any changes this week. I'm convinced the Giants and Dodgers are going to battle it out for the remainder of the season in the West. For now I will give the Giants the nod but I feel like the Dodgers will be in that spot sooner rather than later. The NL is suddenly looking like the stronger league with the likes of the Reds, Nationals and Braves all in playoff contention. Even the Pirates look like they could make noise this season.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

July 28th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

There hasn't been a whole lot of change in the Prognostications this week, except for the addition of the Oakland A's and the subtraction of the Chicago White Sox.

American League

The A's get in on the strength of their play lately (11-2 since the All-Star Break) and take over from the Pirates as the uber-sexy pick of the week.

The Tigers on the other hand move from one of the Wild Card spots last week and into the AL Central Divsion winners spot. They swept the White Sox last weekend to reclaim the division lead (a lead they've since let slip away). However the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez from the Marlins should provide a welcome boost to the starting rotation. In the long run they're just a better team than the White Sox.

I'd love to pick the A's to advance past the Angels in the 1 gamer but I can't. The Angels were a better team before acquiring Greinke on Friday night, now they're even tougher. Both of those teams in the West are putting serious pressure on the Rangers up top. The Rangers lead has shrunk to 4 games.

National League

On the senior circuit the bracket looks the exact same. Kudos to the Reds for playing such great baseball without Joey Votto (and kudos to me for putting them into the World Series last week). The Reds have won 8 straight games and are suddenly tied with the Nationals for the best record in the NL (and only one game back of the Yankees for best record in baseball).

The Dodgers, although they didn't make the list this week could soon find themselves changing places with the Giants. It really depends on how well the Hanley Ramirez trade works out. The Dodgers would be in an even greater position to leapfrog the Giants if they got Ryan Dempster in the coming days. For now though the Giants remain the winners of the West.

Zack Greinke, Serial Killer

I'm not judging, well actually I am, but this gem was floating around twitter last night.

Zack Greinke getting a send off from some Brewers teammates. Not the most flattering picture. Could they not have retaken it before posting it for the world to see? Greinke looks deranged ... but maybe he's just happy to be leaving the Brewers.

Greinke off to the AL West

According to ESPN.com the Milwaukee Brewers are set to trade SP Zack Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels. Greinke has been the source of many trade rumors leading up to the July 31st Trade Deadline but the Brewers made an effort to re-sign him in recent days. Clearly those talks went nowhere and the Brewers felt the best move would be to trade Greinke.

Greinke returns to the AL after spending the last year and a half in the NL. Prior to his time with the Brewers Greinke spent 7 seasons pitching for the Kansas City Royals including the 2009 season when he was the AL Cy Young winner.

The Angels are in need of rotation help as Ervin Santana is struggling mightily this season. Through 19 starts and 111 IP Santana has an ERA of exactly 6.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

July 21st - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

Each week leading up to the MLB Playoffs we'll predict who will advance just to see how much things change over the course of the season. There is no method to the madness just sheer, extremely early, predictions.

American League

The best two teams right now are the Yankees and the Rangers. I don't see that changing much throughout the rest of the season. I think both of those teams will finish 1-2 in the American League. However I worry they'll slip up once there. The Yankees are an old team and the rigors of a 162 game schedule will begin to wear upon them. The Rangers however are still strong enough to advance to the ALCS. Making three straight World Series' though, seems nearly impossible in this day and age. The White Sox will hold off the Tigers in the Central, although that could change very soon. The Tigers will take one of the two Wildcards but lose the one game playoff to the Angels. I like the Angels very much this season. With some additions at the deadline I think they could be the teams to beat this season in the AL. Hence I have them advancing to the World Series.

I would have loved to include both the Red Sox and A's but I just couldn't bring myself to putting either of them in over the likes of the Angels and Tigers. 

National League

The Nationals better figure out something with Stephen Strasburg. Cutting him off at 160 IP will mean his season will be over at the beginning of September (ish). I understand you don't want to risk long-term injury to their ace but imagine making the playoffs and telling him he can't pitch? It's going to be tough. They do have enough pitching to win the division though and should secure the top spot in the NL. I think the Giants and Reds will survive battles within their respective divisions. The Braves are starting to play really well and look like they could provide the Nationals a serious threat in the East. I like the Pirates too much to not pick them to make the playoffs. However it will be as one of the Wildcards and they'll lose to the stronger Braves. I don't really see a strong team in the NL like I do in the AL. The Nationals would be my World Series pick if Strasburg was available. I think it becomes a real toss up. For now I'll take the Reds to advance to the World Series, but they could definitely use some pitching help.

The Dodgers are just not good enough to beat the Giants. Tim Lincecum has started to turn things around and that makes the Giants even more formidable. I don't think many other teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

All-Star Break Awards

Alright so there won't be any meaningful baseball for 5 days (don't try to feed me the "All-Star game has meaning" speech, who are you, Bud Selig?). As we've reached the mid-ish point of the season let's look back on the first half and give out some hardware, shall we?

AL Rookie of the Year

L.A Angels OF Mike Trout

Mike Trout, OF L.A. Angels. Plain and simple. Since the 20 year old was called up from AAA Salt Lake on April 28th all he's done is hit and all the Angels have done is win. Since Trout's arrival the Angels are 42-24 (they were 6-14 before). Some might argue that the Angels rise also coincided with Albert Pujols finding his stride at the plate and while that may also be true you can't take anything away from Trout. He leads all qualified MLB Rookies in, virtually, every major category. He's been the Angels lead-off hitter in all but one game and has done everything you could possibly ask for. He is 3rd in all of baseball with a 9.12 Runs Created/27 outs (behind only Joey Votto and Andrew McCutcheon). He owns an OBP of nearly .400 (.397) and ranks 2nd in all of MLB with 26 SB (and has only been caught 3 times). Before Trout's promotion the great Albert Pujols had only driven in 4 runs, yes 4, in 20 games. Since that time Pujols has driven in 47 runs in 65 games. Is Mike Trout the only reason the Angels are winning games? No. Is he a large part of it? Absolutely.

Runner-up: Yu Darvish, SP Texas Rangers

NL Rookie of the Year

Arizona SP Wade Miley

Wade Miley, SP Arizona Diamondbacks. Many people will likely tab Bryce Harper for this award which makes a lot of sense. The Nationals are currently a playoff team and the DBacks are not. Harper is getting a ton of media attention and Miley is not. However the Nationals were winning baseball games before the arrival of the phenom Harper. Whereas Miley has been the most consistent and best starting pitcher on a .500 team. He has more wins, has a lower ERA, WHIP and BAA than any of the other starters for the DBacks and that list includes Ian Kennedy who finished 4th in Cy Young voting in 2011. Miley started the season in the bullpen but after making his first start of the season on April 23rd has pitched into the 6th inning in 13 of 14 starts. He's allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his 14 starts including a stretch of 4 straight starts only allowing 1 run. The Diamondbacks find themselves a mere 4 games out in the NL West. If Miley can have a strong 2nd Half and push them towards the playoffs he'll get much greater consideration for this award.

Runner-up: Bryce Harper, OF Washington Nationals

AL Cy Young

L.A. Angels SP Jered Weaver

This is a tough one. Through the first half of the season the AL has seen a number of pitchers lay an early claim to this award. The candidate that stands out the most though is another L.A. Angel in Jered Weaver. Despite missing nearly a month of the season Weaver continues to pace MLB in ERA (1.96) and WHIP (0.90). Weaver also has a no-hitter to his name this season after accomplishing the feat against the Minnesota Twins on May 2. In almost half of his starts (7 of 15) Weaver hasn't allowed a run (earned or unearned). In 10 of 15 starts he's only allowed 1 run or less. He's the ace of the Angels pitching staff and holds a 10-1 record. It's not difficult to see why his record is so good as Weaver doesn't rely on run support to get his victories, he does the job himself.

Runner up: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

NL Cy Young

Giants SP Matt Cain

Again just like the AL the NL has seen a number of worthy performances through the first half. It's a difficult choice but the NL Cy Young for the first half goes to Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants. Just like Weaver in the AL Matt Cain has a no-hitter to his name this season (although his was a Perfect Game). It was the first Perfect Game in Giants history (129 years) and only the 22nd in MLB history. Cain has been masterful all season when the Giants pitching staff has needed him most. Tim Lincecum has struggled horrendously and Cain has picked up the slack posting a 9-3 record with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He's struck out 118 batters in 120.1 IP while only walking 24. Currently he ranks 6th in the NL in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, 4th in BAA, 4th in Ks and 2nd in IP. He trails 8 different pitchers in the NL for the lead in wins. Which begs the question why is Matt Cain the Cy Young winner in the first half? Because R.A. Dickey is the only other pitcher who can claim he's in the Top 5 of those stats. It really is a toss up between the two. Their teams hold an identical 46-40 heading into the break. The Perfect Game is really the difference right now.

Runner-up: R.A. Dickey, N.Y. Mets

AL Most Valuable Player

Rangers OF Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton ensures all the big AL Awards stay in the AL West. Hamilton takes the award on the strength of his bat. In 2010 he was the AL MVP after hitting .359/32/100 in 133 games. That season he posted an OPS of 1.044. In 2012 Hamilton has already eclipsed his HR total from 2011 (by 2) and is 5 shy of his 2010 season total. His OPS is a few points lower than his 2010 season (1.016). Barring any further injuries Hamilton once again has a realistic shot at a Triple Crown as he already leads in RBI and is tied for the lead in HR. He's clubbing a HR a MLB best once every 11.1 ABs for the two-time defending AL Champions. In May he became only the 16th player in MLB history to hit 4 HRs in one game. He does trail Mike Trout and David Ortiz in RC27 but his power totals should be enough to sway voters.

Runner-up: Mike Trout, OF L.A. Angels

NL Most Valuable Player

Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen

The 25 year old McCutchen's star continues to rise in relative obscurity in Pittsburgh. Although the Pirates strong season could change that very soon. McCutchen is the driving force of their offence leading the team in every important category. Like Josh Hamilton before him he could have a reasonable chance at a Triple Crown run. He leads the NL in AVG, and is third in RBI (5 behind). His HR total could be what holds him back as he is currently 6 behind 2011 MVP and NL leader Ryan Braun (who has 24). McCutchen trails only Joey Votto in RC27 in all of MLB (10.74-9.75). Without him its hard to imagine the Pirates would hold a one game lead over Votto's Reds in the NL Central at this point in the season. The surprising Pirates will need McCutchen to continue his strong season if they have hopes of making the playoffs. If he does and they do he'll be holding up an MVP trophy come the off-season.

Top Stories of the First Half

With the final weekend of baseball before the All-Star break upon us let's look back at the five most interesting stories to sweep through baseball, so far, in 2012.

R.A. Dickey

How could this man not be included? In October he will turn 38 and all he's done this season is dominate the NL like he's never done before. This is a guy who a few seasons ago not only couldn't hold down a job in a rotation but struggled to say in the Majors. He bounced between franchises (Texas, Seattle and Minnesota) before the Mets finally gave him a chance at being a full-time starter in 2010. His knuckleball seems to be mystifying hitters and has allowed him to notch, an MLB leading, 12 wins. He ranks third in ERA (2.40) and first in Ks (123) in the NL. He has more strikeouts than names like Kershaw, Strasburg and Cain. His WHIP sits at a very pretty 0.93 and leads all of baseball. On June 13th and 18th he tossed back-to-back 1 hitters. He's an early favorite for the NL Cy Young. Oh and before the season even began he released a book titled Wherever I Wind Up: My Quest for Truth, Authenticity and the Perfect Knuckleball. In the book he spoke about how he was sexually abused as a child. The man's overcome a lot to have, without a doubt, the best season of his career.

 No-Hitters, Perfect Games and Cycles

These feats are impressive during any season but 2012 has already seen its fair share of them. Chicago White Sox Phil Humber started us off by tossing a Perfect Game at Safeco Field versus the Seattle Mariners on April 21. Eleven days later on May 2nd Jered Weaver tossed a no-hitter against the Minnesota Twins. Just about a month after that (June 1) Johan Santana tossed the first ever no-hitter in the 50 year history of the N.Y. Mets. Exactly a week later six Seattle Mariners combined to no-hit the L.A. Dodgers. Then only 5 days later Matt Cain tossed the second perfect game of the season versus the Giants. 

Hitters haven't been outdone though as less than a week after Humber tossed his perfect game Scott Hairston of the Mets hit for the cycle. Then in June when there was a break from pitching feats Aaron Hill accomplished one of the more remarkable feats in MLB history. On June 18th Hill hit for the cycle against the Mariners (Seattle has been involved in a lot this season already). Twelve short days later Hill was at it again hitting for the cycle against the Milwaukee Brewers becoming only the 4th player in MLB history to hit two cycles in one season, the second since 1900 and the first since 1931. If Hill were to hit another cycle in the remaining three months of the season he'd not only become the first player ever to do it but he'd also be tied atop the list of career cycles (3). 

Cycles now outnumber no-hitters 293-272. What a season we're having already. 

Washington Nationals Rotation  

First things first the Nationals have only used 6 starters all season with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson all making at least 16 starts (Ross Detwiler has made 12). Not only has the rotation stayed healthy though they've all performed. All five starters have an ERA that is lower than 3.74. Four of the five have WHIPs less than 1.16. If they continue at this pace it would be hard to imagine the Nationals not winning the NL East. They could use another bat or two in the lineup and it will be interesting to see what they decide to do at the deadline. Additionally the Nationals plan to limit Ace Stephen Strasburg's innings to 160. Hard to imagine how they'll accomplish that if the Nationals are in a playoff race. 

Here are all the starters numbers:
(W-L, ERA, WHIP, BAA, K, BB)
Strasburg - 9-4  2.82  1.10  .225  128  28
Gonzalez - 11-3  3.01  1.12  .195  112  39
Zimmerman - 5-6  2.70  1.15  .252  72  20
Jackson - 5-4  3.73  1.13  .228  76  30
Detwiler - 4-3  3.43  1.27  .249  55  26 

I'll take a 5th starter with a 3.43 ERA any day. 

Rookies  

The performance of various rookies all across MLB have caught the attention of fans and media alike. Angels Mike Trout is being hailed as the AL MVP by many. Rangers Yu Darvish hasn't been a complete flop as an import from the Japanese League and recently won the last chance vote for the AL All-Star team. Red Sox Will Middlebrooks has performed so well Boston was forced to trade fan favourite Kevin Youkilis to keep him on the field. Nationals Bryce Harper is one of the most highly touted prospects in years and at age 19 is having a solid season for the NL East leaders. Anthony Rizzo was just recently called up by the Cubs and has hit in virtually every game. Lance Lynn has moved from the Cardinals World Series winning bullpen to the rotation and all he's done is win 11 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles

Isn't it nice to see someone else atop of the standings, especially two franchises that have struggled for so long. The Orioles haven't made the playoffs since 1997 while the Pirates haven't made the playoffs since 1992. 

The Orioles started out the season strong and have held their own in the AL East all season. Right now they sit at 45-38. That's good enough for 2nd place in the East 6 games back of the Yankees. 

The Pirates on the other hand have played well as of late and have surged into 1st in the NL Central. They currently sit at 46-37 and hold a 1 game lead over the Reds. 

With the added Wildcard this season both franchises will have a realistic chance at the playoffs if they can continue their strong play. It would be nice for baseball to have an infusion of new teams into the playoffs. At first I was against the additional Wildcard but it has certainly done its job. So many teams are in contention that normally wouldn't be. I'm glad to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two of those franchises. 

Imagine they faced off in the World Series? I bet no one would have predicted that in Spring. 

That's almost it for the first half, let's hope the second half is just as interesting.