Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

Well the PP's aren't really premature anymore. Teams have seven or eight games left and four of five playoff spots have been decided in the NL. The AL doesn't have a clincher yet but things look to be pretty stagnant, aside from the Central.

American League

The only change this week is the Orioles are now into the ALDS after defeating the A's in the one gamer. The O's have just been playing better baseball right now. The change subsequently bumps the Tigers into a series with the Yankees. I considered putting the Tigers through but for this week I'll leave the Yankees there. Next week (the final week) I may change my mind.

National League

As mentioned the NL Playoff Bracket is 80% filled. We know the Nationals and Braves have locked up playoff spots in the East (the Braves could mathematically still chase down the Nats for the division). The Reds are the Champs in the Central. The Giants are the Champs of the West. The only thing left to be decided is the new Wild Card Spot where the Cardinals currently hold a 4.5 game edge. Seems pretty reasonable to assume they'll end up winning that spot. The biggest remaining question is who will be the NL's best? The Nats and Reds have an identical record (93-61).

World Series

Again, no changes. Five straight weeks I've taken the Reds over Rangers in 7.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 18th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

The AL is losing some of the intrigue it had a few weeks back. It's looking more and more like the A's and Orioles will end up in the Wild Card spots battling for a place in the ALDS. It continues to amaze me that both of these teams are surviving September. There's still time but I'm now a believer in both of them. I haven't been for five and a half months but with a mere 15 and 16 games left it's time to give these teams their due.

The A's are the only change this week in the AL. They push out the Rays who have dropped 6 of 7 to fall 5 games back with 15 to play. The A's will also win the one gamer against the Orioles which pushes the Tigers into the series with the Rangers. The A's have, so far, survived a brutal September and if they hold on into next week I may give them the nod over the Yankees in the ALDS. I can't do it yet, but I may.

Despite the Tigers sitting 3 games back of the White Sox I continue to give them the nod in the Central. My reasoning is simple: the Tigers are the better team. No what the records indicate the Tigers are better. Believe it. However easing my decision is the schedule for both teams. The Tigers do battle the A's this week which will be tough. After those three games though the Tigers finish with six against the Twins and seven against the Royals. The White Sox still need to make a trip out west to play the Angels and still have a series against the Rays. Both teams are fighting for their lives which could make a challenging few games for the Sox.

National League

There a lot of teams suddenly in the race in the NL Wild Card prompting many to complain about the second Wild Card rewarding mediocrity (I voiced my opinion on that here). However nothing has changed for the second straight week in my NL bracket.

The Braves are locked into the first WC 7.5 up on the Cardinals who hold the second spot. Throwing their names into contention are the Dodgers (-1.0), Pirates (-2.5), Brewers (-2.5), Phillies (-3.5), Diamondbacks (-4.5) and even the Padres have made a run (-6).

Despite all the new teams who have a realistic shot I still think it's down to two teams: Cardinals and Dodgers. For the Dodgers sake they better win the WC after their addition of $250 million + in salary from the Red Sox a few weeks ago. I don't think they will though.

The Dodgers have a tough schedule to close out. They have a series against each of the NL Divisional leaders (Nationals, Reds and Giants). They also play the Padres who, as mentioned, are suddenly in "contention" themselves. The easiest series they have remaining is against the Rockies.

The Cardinals however nine games remaining against AL Central cellar dwellers in the Astros and Cubs. They do play the Nats and Reds as well to be fair. However those nine "easy" games give the defending champs the leg up.

World Series

My prediction remains unchanged, yet again. I know boring.

Reds over Rangers in 7.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 10th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

How about the American League. There are four teams (A's, Orioles, Rays and Angels) all within two and a half games of the two Wild Card spots. It's conceivable that there could be a three, or even four, way tie for the Wild Card. That would definitely add some excitement to the already artificially created excitement of the one game playoff.

Currently the A's hold the top spot (1.5 up on the Orioles) and were a part of last week's bracket. Unfortunately for them, despite their current lead, they've been dropped in this week's bracket in favor of the Rays. The reason is simple, the A's have a very tough schedule the rest of the way. Their remaining games come against the Angels (4), Rangers (7), Orioles (3), Tigers (3), Yankees (3) and Mariners (3). The weakest team on that list is the Mariners ... and even they've been playing pretty good baseball since the All-Star Break. The other three teams in the Wild Card battle have much easier schedules. The Rays have nine games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox while the Orioles have 10 games against those same teams. The Angels have a similar schedule to the A's but they get a bit of a break in playing the Royals for three.

The Rays enter the bracket as the second WC and win the one gamer against division rival Orioles. Because the Rays are the new team into the ALDS the Rays face off against the top team in the AL (Rangers) and bump the Tigers down to face the Yankees.

My justification for continuing to leave the Tigers in as the division winners in the Central is their easier schedule down the stretch. They have 16 games against the Indians, Twins and Royals. They also play four against the team they are chasing, the White Sox, and also battle the A's. The White Sox meanwhile play the Angels and Rays in addition to the Tigers. 

National League

The NL is much more boring in comparison. The only change is the Nationals retaking 1st place in the NL back from the Reds.

World Series

The World Series also remains the same, Reds over Rangers in 7.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 2nd - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

CHANGES! CHANGES GLORE!

That's right folks there's a whole slew of new teams in the PP's! It's September and we are inching ever closer to October Baseball and it is getting harder and harder to deny certain teams (cough, Orioles) a spot in the bracket. So I've caved and the Orioles are making their first appearance on the PP's. You know this can only mean one thing ... they'll now collapse.

Also around the American League the A's have jumped into the second Wild Card spot. They've been out for three weeks but have returned. Their play never really dropped off and they were never that far out. I just figured other teams were capable of chasing them down (I'm looking at you, Angels). But once again, just like the O's, their presence can no longer be ignored.

Another change in the bracket has seen the Tigers move out of a Wild Card spot and into the AL Central Division winners spot. The Tigers have been in the bracket five of seven weeks but this is the first time since July 28th they've been in as the division winner.

As such the White Sox had to be bumped. They've been in the bracket as the AL Central winners for five straight weeks. Also bumped were the Tampa Bay Rays. They've cooled off recently and find themselves 1.5 back in the WC.

No changes in the winners of the ALDS as the Yankees and Rangers are still the toast of the AL.

National League

CHANGES!

Not quite as many as the AL but there has been some notable movement in the NL as well.

First off I have to apologize to the Cincinnati Reds. I've had them in the World Series six of seven weeks but have always had them second in the NL to the Nationals. That changes this week for the first time. It's something I may have overlooked or it may have been something I did deliberately. Either way looking at it I couldn't believe that I had never put the Reds on top of the NL. That has been corrected and the Nationals have lost their top spot for the first time. Now on to the rest of the PP's.

Welcome back to the San Fransisco Giants. Their two week absence was in large part because of the Melky Cabrera suspension and the Dodgers massive trade. However they currently find themselves 4.5 games up on those same Dodgers and as such make their return.

The rest of the NL Bracket remains the same save for the Nationals once again pushing through to the NLCS. I'm sorry I got a little excited last week with the Dodgers trade and in that excitement I pushed them in the NLCS instead of the Nationals ... my apologies.

World Series

NO CHANGES!

I guess that's not nearly as exciting as changes.

Reds over Rangers in 7, still.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Alright so it's a pretty boring week for the PP's as for the first time there are no new teams into the playoff bracket, on either side. Additionally in the AL there wasn't even any change within who would win each series. I did consider putting the Rays over the Rangers in the ALDS but I held off ... for now. I also considered giving the Baltimore Orioles a nod over the Tigers but once again I couldn't do it. I just cannot accept the fact that the Orioles are going to enter September that close to a playoff spot. They've had a great season and I continue to deny them (and likely will deny them in the future). It's the Orioles though, come on! They can't be making the playoffs, can they?

National League

The NL bracket harbored the only change this week. The Dodgers (an their massive trade) has propelled them over the Nationals in the NLDS. If Strasburg were to pitch in that series (which he won't) I would pick the Nats. The Pirates are breaking my and have fallen 2.0 games behind the Cards. It's a shame and I hope they recover but I certainly cannot predict that they will.

World Series

For the first time in the PP's I will predict the World Series.

The Rangers get back for a 3rd straight season and they have to win one eventually, right? Wrong. The Cincinnati Reds are your 2012 World Series Champions.

The Reds are the more complete team and presuming they stay healthy the rest of the way have a great chance to win their first World Series since 1990.

If the Rangers had better pitching they'd have the edge in the series. The problem is Yu Darvish appears to be wearing down. He hasn't pitched well in the second half. Ryan Dempster has been pretty terrible in Texas. Roy Oswalt has done nothing. Scott Feldman and Derek Holland both have ERAs approaching 5. The only good starter right now is Matt Harrison.

The Reds don't have a Nationals-esque rotation behind Johnny Cueto but it is still better than the Rangers.

The Rangers would hold the edge on offense and that could pose a threat to the Reds pitching staff and World Series aspirations.

All in all another heartbreaking 7 game series loss for the Rangers.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 19th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Once again, for the second straight week, there's a change in the American League. The Tigers have won a spot over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Playoff game. The A's haven't been playing as well of late and while they are only 0.5 games out of a WC spot the Tigers sit a half game behind them. The Tigers are just a much more dangerous team and because of it they get the nod this week. However I still have them losing to the Rays in the WC Playoff. For the A's it's the first time they find themselves off the bracket since July 28th while the Tigers find themselves on for the first time since that same date. There aren't any other changes in the AL. However I will mention that this is the 3rd straight week the Rangers have been given the nod as AL Champs, the longest such stretch since the PP's started five weeks ago.

Once again I cannot find it possible to put the Orioles into a WC spot. I just can't do it. They continue to stick around though and maybe, just maybe, they'll be there eventually. 

National League

The NL has seen the some of the biggest changes since the PPs started. There's movement all over the bracket.

First the Pirates have been bumped from the bracket for the first time. They had been one of the WC teams in each of the previous four weeks. The Dodgers are making their first appearance in the bracket as the winners of the NL West. They get the nod because of their play lately but also because of Melky Cabrera's suspension. The defending World Series Champion Cardinals are making their first appearance on the bracket as well. They are suddenly one game out of a WC spot and at this point it's hard to deny them a place, no matter how much I want the Pirates to make the playoffs for the 1st time in 20 years. However the Cards will still lose to the Braves in the WC Playoff. The Nationals one week reign as NL Champs is over. The Reds struggled a little bit last week which caused the change. Also the Nats continued stance on Stephen Strasburg hurts their chances come October. The Reds are therefore representing the NL for the 4th time in 5 brackets.

Starting in September I will also include predictions for who will win the World Series as that is something that has been absent in the PPs.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 12th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Some change, albeit only one new team, but it causes a change in the bracket. The Tampa Bay Rays are making their first appearance on the PP's this season. They've been playing well of late and have surged into a tie for the WC lead. They're a team that was expected to compete for a playoff spot prior to the beginning of the season and now in mid-August they appear to be there. The victims of the Rays being promoted are the Angels. Two weeks ago I had the Angels in the World Series and now I don't even have them playing in the 1-game WC Playoff. Things change quick.

Just like last week I still have the Rangers representing the AL. Despite the fact they have a new opponent (the Rays as opposed to the White Sox) in the first round I still think they are the team to beat in the AL. The Yankees manage to get past the White Sox.

The A's still cling to a spot in the bracket but I fear that could change in the coming weeks.

National League

Or should I say the "Nationals League" ... haha (blank stare). Yes bad joke but that's how things are shaping up. For the first time since I created the PP's a mere 3 weeks ago the Cincinnati Reds are not the NL representative in the World Series. The Nationals strong play as of late necessitated the change.

Nothing else changed in the NL bracket however I should mention I did seriously consider swapping the Pirates and the defending Champ Cardinals. For this week I'll leave the Pirates in the second WC but I'm predicting that spot could change quite a bit over the final seven weeks of the season.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 4th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

I've been losing faith in the Angels for the last few weeks but continued to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. My World Series representative in the AL is now going to be bounced from the playoffs in the ALDS by the Yankees. I still think the Angels will end up winning one of the two Wild Card spots and manage to secure a victory in that matchup.

It was hard for me to choose who to take in the AL after bumping the Angels. I don't think the Yankees are strong enough to make the World Series but I also fear how difficult it might be for the Rangers to make their third straight.

I left the Tigers in last week despite falling out of the lead in the AL Central. They still haven't climbed back into the lead and as such I had to bring back the White Sox as the division winners there.

National League

The National League hasn't seen any changes this week. I'm convinced the Giants and Dodgers are going to battle it out for the remainder of the season in the West. For now I will give the Giants the nod but I feel like the Dodgers will be in that spot sooner rather than later. The NL is suddenly looking like the stronger league with the likes of the Reds, Nationals and Braves all in playoff contention. Even the Pirates look like they could make noise this season.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

July 28th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

There hasn't been a whole lot of change in the Prognostications this week, except for the addition of the Oakland A's and the subtraction of the Chicago White Sox.

American League

The A's get in on the strength of their play lately (11-2 since the All-Star Break) and take over from the Pirates as the uber-sexy pick of the week.

The Tigers on the other hand move from one of the Wild Card spots last week and into the AL Central Divsion winners spot. They swept the White Sox last weekend to reclaim the division lead (a lead they've since let slip away). However the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez from the Marlins should provide a welcome boost to the starting rotation. In the long run they're just a better team than the White Sox.

I'd love to pick the A's to advance past the Angels in the 1 gamer but I can't. The Angels were a better team before acquiring Greinke on Friday night, now they're even tougher. Both of those teams in the West are putting serious pressure on the Rangers up top. The Rangers lead has shrunk to 4 games.

National League

On the senior circuit the bracket looks the exact same. Kudos to the Reds for playing such great baseball without Joey Votto (and kudos to me for putting them into the World Series last week). The Reds have won 8 straight games and are suddenly tied with the Nationals for the best record in the NL (and only one game back of the Yankees for best record in baseball).

The Dodgers, although they didn't make the list this week could soon find themselves changing places with the Giants. It really depends on how well the Hanley Ramirez trade works out. The Dodgers would be in an even greater position to leapfrog the Giants if they got Ryan Dempster in the coming days. For now though the Giants remain the winners of the West.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

July 21st - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

Each week leading up to the MLB Playoffs we'll predict who will advance just to see how much things change over the course of the season. There is no method to the madness just sheer, extremely early, predictions.

American League

The best two teams right now are the Yankees and the Rangers. I don't see that changing much throughout the rest of the season. I think both of those teams will finish 1-2 in the American League. However I worry they'll slip up once there. The Yankees are an old team and the rigors of a 162 game schedule will begin to wear upon them. The Rangers however are still strong enough to advance to the ALCS. Making three straight World Series' though, seems nearly impossible in this day and age. The White Sox will hold off the Tigers in the Central, although that could change very soon. The Tigers will take one of the two Wildcards but lose the one game playoff to the Angels. I like the Angels very much this season. With some additions at the deadline I think they could be the teams to beat this season in the AL. Hence I have them advancing to the World Series.

I would have loved to include both the Red Sox and A's but I just couldn't bring myself to putting either of them in over the likes of the Angels and Tigers. 

National League

The Nationals better figure out something with Stephen Strasburg. Cutting him off at 160 IP will mean his season will be over at the beginning of September (ish). I understand you don't want to risk long-term injury to their ace but imagine making the playoffs and telling him he can't pitch? It's going to be tough. They do have enough pitching to win the division though and should secure the top spot in the NL. I think the Giants and Reds will survive battles within their respective divisions. The Braves are starting to play really well and look like they could provide the Nationals a serious threat in the East. I like the Pirates too much to not pick them to make the playoffs. However it will be as one of the Wildcards and they'll lose to the stronger Braves. I don't really see a strong team in the NL like I do in the AL. The Nationals would be my World Series pick if Strasburg was available. I think it becomes a real toss up. For now I'll take the Reds to advance to the World Series, but they could definitely use some pitching help.

The Dodgers are just not good enough to beat the Giants. Tim Lincecum has started to turn things around and that makes the Giants even more formidable. I don't think many other teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.