Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 10th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

How about the American League. There are four teams (A's, Orioles, Rays and Angels) all within two and a half games of the two Wild Card spots. It's conceivable that there could be a three, or even four, way tie for the Wild Card. That would definitely add some excitement to the already artificially created excitement of the one game playoff.

Currently the A's hold the top spot (1.5 up on the Orioles) and were a part of last week's bracket. Unfortunately for them, despite their current lead, they've been dropped in this week's bracket in favor of the Rays. The reason is simple, the A's have a very tough schedule the rest of the way. Their remaining games come against the Angels (4), Rangers (7), Orioles (3), Tigers (3), Yankees (3) and Mariners (3). The weakest team on that list is the Mariners ... and even they've been playing pretty good baseball since the All-Star Break. The other three teams in the Wild Card battle have much easier schedules. The Rays have nine games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox while the Orioles have 10 games against those same teams. The Angels have a similar schedule to the A's but they get a bit of a break in playing the Royals for three.

The Rays enter the bracket as the second WC and win the one gamer against division rival Orioles. Because the Rays are the new team into the ALDS the Rays face off against the top team in the AL (Rangers) and bump the Tigers down to face the Yankees.

My justification for continuing to leave the Tigers in as the division winners in the Central is their easier schedule down the stretch. They have 16 games against the Indians, Twins and Royals. They also play four against the team they are chasing, the White Sox, and also battle the A's. The White Sox meanwhile play the Angels and Rays in addition to the Tigers. 

National League

The NL is much more boring in comparison. The only change is the Nationals retaking 1st place in the NL back from the Reds.

World Series

The World Series also remains the same, Reds over Rangers in 7.

Could The Impossible Happen?

Yankees find themselves battling for Playoff Lives

On July 18th everything was great in Yankee land. The Bombers held a 10.0 game lead over all of their AL East rivals. Even sweeter was the fact that arch rival Boston was beginning to crumble from every inch of the organization. The Red Sox had already traded fan favorite Kevin Youkilis to the White Sox. Rumors of Bobby Valentine's (eventual) dismissal were beginning to surface. About a week later the Red Sox players held a coup - in New York during a series with the Yankees no less - to get Valentine fired. Mostly notable of those players, depending on which reports you read, was Adrian Gonzalez. At the end of August Gonzalez along with Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett (and Nick Punto to be exact but no one cares about him) were sent packing to Los Angeles.

The biggest threat to the Yankees, back on July 18th, was the Baltimore Orioles who happened to be the team that was 10 back. At the time Yankee fans were probably celebrating what they thought to be an inevitable division championship. I mean it was the Orioles and they were 10 back. No hope, done deal. Might as well give them the banner now, right?

Wrong.

The Orioles have done the remarkable. Entering play on Wednesday September 5th the Yankees find themselves in a tie for first in the AL East with those pesky birds.

Yes the season still has three weeks to play and the Yankees could once again reclaim a lead in the East. At the same time they may not.

I can't imagine many people expected the Orioles to be in this position. Even the most devout O's fan must have looked at that 10 game deficit in July and thought, "hey at least we're having a good season and maybe we'll snag a Wild Card". At that time the Orioles were 47-44 and a half game out of the second Wild Card. They'd gone 3-7 in the last ten games and appeared to be fading. It was the Orioles so of course they had to fade. They had to come back down to Earth. There was no way the Orioles could legitimately be in the playoff race, could they?

Well here we are, it's September and yes they are very much alive. The team that shouldn't be tied with the mighty Bronx Bombers somehow is.

But the Orioles can't be the Yankees only concern right now. The Tampa Bay Rays are also knocking on the door, sitting a game and a half back in the East. Not to mention the whole slew of teams that are positioning themselves in other divisional races and are likely going to be in on the battle for those Wild Card spots. We could be looking at as many as 8 teams fighting for the 5 playoff spots. The Yankees, Orioles and Rays in the East, the White Sox and Tigers in the Central and the Rangers, A's and Angels in the West. Someone is going to have to give.

But could that be the Yankees? Is it possible that a team that appeared to have secured a playoff spot in mid-July is somehow going to be on the outside looking in?

At the time the Yankees 10 game lead was almost double that of the next closest division leaders lead (Texas had 5.5 on the Angels). The 5 other division leaders at the time were Chicago White Sox, Texas, Washington, Cincinnati and San Fransisco. Now go look at today's standings (go on, I'll wait) ...

Do you notice what I noticed. Yes, that's right all five of those teams are still in the lead of their respective divisions (sole possession I might add).

Almost two months ago it seemed inconceivable that the Yankees wouldn't win the division. Now it becomes a reasonable suggestion.

Fortunately for New York the remaining schedule is quite tame. Aside from an upcoming, 4 game, weekend battle with the O's the Yankees face off against the likes of Toronto, Boston and Minnesota.

If the Yankees lose the division (and maybe even miss the playoffs) they'll only have themselves to blame.

It's hard to believe but the Baltimore Orioles could be AL East Champions for the first time in 15 years. Even harder to believe is the fact that the Yankees could miss the playoffs entirely. A notion that just might ease some of the pain in Boston.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Alright so it's a pretty boring week for the PP's as for the first time there are no new teams into the playoff bracket, on either side. Additionally in the AL there wasn't even any change within who would win each series. I did consider putting the Rays over the Rangers in the ALDS but I held off ... for now. I also considered giving the Baltimore Orioles a nod over the Tigers but once again I couldn't do it. I just cannot accept the fact that the Orioles are going to enter September that close to a playoff spot. They've had a great season and I continue to deny them (and likely will deny them in the future). It's the Orioles though, come on! They can't be making the playoffs, can they?

National League

The NL bracket harbored the only change this week. The Dodgers (an their massive trade) has propelled them over the Nationals in the NLDS. If Strasburg were to pitch in that series (which he won't) I would pick the Nats. The Pirates are breaking my and have fallen 2.0 games behind the Cards. It's a shame and I hope they recover but I certainly cannot predict that they will.

World Series

For the first time in the PP's I will predict the World Series.

The Rangers get back for a 3rd straight season and they have to win one eventually, right? Wrong. The Cincinnati Reds are your 2012 World Series Champions.

The Reds are the more complete team and presuming they stay healthy the rest of the way have a great chance to win their first World Series since 1990.

If the Rangers had better pitching they'd have the edge in the series. The problem is Yu Darvish appears to be wearing down. He hasn't pitched well in the second half. Ryan Dempster has been pretty terrible in Texas. Roy Oswalt has done nothing. Scott Feldman and Derek Holland both have ERAs approaching 5. The only good starter right now is Matt Harrison.

The Reds don't have a Nationals-esque rotation behind Johnny Cueto but it is still better than the Rangers.

The Rangers would hold the edge on offense and that could pose a threat to the Reds pitching staff and World Series aspirations.

All in all another heartbreaking 7 game series loss for the Rangers.

AL East: Can the Rays Catch the Yankees?

There's an interesting scenario brewing in the AL East as the Tampa Bay Rays are returning to form. The Rays are winners of their last 5 and 8 of their last 10. They've cut the Yankees lead down to 4.0 games in the AL East.

The New York Yankees have been in control of the East for most of the summer (they've owned sole possession since June 12th). The four game lead they currently own going into play on Tuesday is the smallest lead they've held since June 29th.

It begs the question, can the Rays chase down the Yankees and make a race out of the AL East?

Well first of all if I've learned anything about baseball, and more specifically the Rays, it's that you can never count them out. Never mind the 9 game deficit they overcame in September 2011 to win the Wild Card on the final day of the season, what about this season? Almost one month ago (July 18th) the Rays looked dead to rights in the East sitting 10.5 games back of the Yankees. They've closed 6.5 games in just over a months time so of course they could make a race of the East and of course they could win ... but will they?

The Yankees appear to have the easier schedule the rest of the way. Both teams do play the exact same amount of games (40 apiece) with 6 against each other. The Yankees however have 22 games against teams that are out of contention. They have the Indians (3 times), Jays (10), Red Sox (6) and Twins (3).

The Rays meanwhile only have 16 games against teams out of contention, the Royals (3), Jays (7) and Red Sox (6).

In the six games difference (between the Yankees 22 games vs the Rays 16 games against teams out of contention) the Rays face off against AL West leading Texas.

So the schedule favors the Bronx Bombers. They have a four game lead and an easier schedule the rest of the way.

Will it be the difference in the East? Maybe, but don't count out those Rays.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 19th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Once again, for the second straight week, there's a change in the American League. The Tigers have won a spot over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Playoff game. The A's haven't been playing as well of late and while they are only 0.5 games out of a WC spot the Tigers sit a half game behind them. The Tigers are just a much more dangerous team and because of it they get the nod this week. However I still have them losing to the Rays in the WC Playoff. For the A's it's the first time they find themselves off the bracket since July 28th while the Tigers find themselves on for the first time since that same date. There aren't any other changes in the AL. However I will mention that this is the 3rd straight week the Rangers have been given the nod as AL Champs, the longest such stretch since the PP's started five weeks ago.

Once again I cannot find it possible to put the Orioles into a WC spot. I just can't do it. They continue to stick around though and maybe, just maybe, they'll be there eventually. 

National League

The NL has seen the some of the biggest changes since the PPs started. There's movement all over the bracket.

First the Pirates have been bumped from the bracket for the first time. They had been one of the WC teams in each of the previous four weeks. The Dodgers are making their first appearance in the bracket as the winners of the NL West. They get the nod because of their play lately but also because of Melky Cabrera's suspension. The defending World Series Champion Cardinals are making their first appearance on the bracket as well. They are suddenly one game out of a WC spot and at this point it's hard to deny them a place, no matter how much I want the Pirates to make the playoffs for the 1st time in 20 years. However the Cards will still lose to the Braves in the WC Playoff. The Nationals one week reign as NL Champs is over. The Reds struggled a little bit last week which caused the change. Also the Nats continued stance on Stephen Strasburg hurts their chances come October. The Reds are therefore representing the NL for the 4th time in 5 brackets.

Starting in September I will also include predictions for who will win the World Series as that is something that has been absent in the PPs.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 12th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Some change, albeit only one new team, but it causes a change in the bracket. The Tampa Bay Rays are making their first appearance on the PP's this season. They've been playing well of late and have surged into a tie for the WC lead. They're a team that was expected to compete for a playoff spot prior to the beginning of the season and now in mid-August they appear to be there. The victims of the Rays being promoted are the Angels. Two weeks ago I had the Angels in the World Series and now I don't even have them playing in the 1-game WC Playoff. Things change quick.

Just like last week I still have the Rangers representing the AL. Despite the fact they have a new opponent (the Rays as opposed to the White Sox) in the first round I still think they are the team to beat in the AL. The Yankees manage to get past the White Sox.

The A's still cling to a spot in the bracket but I fear that could change in the coming weeks.

National League

Or should I say the "Nationals League" ... haha (blank stare). Yes bad joke but that's how things are shaping up. For the first time since I created the PP's a mere 3 weeks ago the Cincinnati Reds are not the NL representative in the World Series. The Nationals strong play as of late necessitated the change.

Nothing else changed in the NL bracket however I should mention I did seriously consider swapping the Pirates and the defending Champ Cardinals. For this week I'll leave the Pirates in the second WC but I'm predicting that spot could change quite a bit over the final seven weeks of the season.

Five Players Who Should Be Traded ...

... But (likely) won't be.

With 13 days before the 2012 Trade Deadline here are five guys that could/should/would benefit from being traded by their current clubs. That or they should be traded for the sheer fact that they no longer fit on their current roster. In no particular order.

Mariners RF Ichiro

The Mariners are not going to be contending for a World Series any time soon. Ichiro isn't the same dynamic player he once was. A trade to a contender in hopes of a World Series ring is a chance that Ichiro deserves. He's done a lot for the game since arriving in Seattle in 2001 and even though seeing him don another uniform would be weird at first it'd feel oh so right if it got him a ring.

Rays SP James Shields

Trading James Shields makes sense for the Rays for two reasons: first he's under conrol until 2014 (unlike many other SP available) and second he could bring a lot in return to a team that needs offense. Shields is a proven competitor that's been pitching in the tough AL East for years now. He's due $9 million with a $1.5 million buyout in 2013 and $12 mil ($1 mil buyout) for 2014. For those teams that aren't willing to trade top prospects for a half season rental player he's an attractive option. The Rays also have Wade Davis sitting the in pen. Davis made 29 starts in each of 2010 and 2011 before being forced to the pen this season. He could slot right into the rotation to replace Shields.

Rockies 1B Todd Helton

 Just like Ichiro before him Helton deserves another shot at a World Series Ring. He hasn't been the same player he once was since 2005 and has been declining ever since. He's going to be 40 next season and his career is winding down. Surely some contender would be interested in his services, potentially as a DH. He is currently on the DL but that doesn't stop him from being traded. What does is Helton's willingness to leave the only organization he's played for.

Phillies SP Roy Halladay

Halladay just returned from the DL on Tuesday and pitched 5 innings in a win over the Dodgers. The Phillies should try to trade Halladay and not trade Cole Hamels. The money freed up from Halladay being trade could be used to re-sign Hamels. Halladay won't bring as much back in return because of his age (35) but he does have two more years (at $20 mil a season) left on his deal. The Phillies are an old team that need to reload. Trading Hamels and keeping Halladay doesn't make much sense to me unless they're sure they can't re-sign Hamels.

Red Sox SP Josh Beckett

Beckett needs to go. Boston needs an ace and Beckett just isn't that guy. He's not a particularly consistent pitcher. He does make a lot of trips to the DL and he's owed a lot of money ($31.5 million through 2014). However with so many teams in contention for the playoffs there's someone out there willing to trade for a guy with two World Series rings. The Red Sox are looking for pitching help themselves so it seems counter intuitive to trade Beckett but a change of scenery could be good for both parties. At 32 Beckett is a younger option than Roy Halladay and comes slightly cheaper.


I'd be a little surprised if any of these five guys were actually traded by their respective teams. But if they do get traded it'll make a lot of sense.