Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Alright so it's a pretty boring week for the PP's as for the first time there are no new teams into the playoff bracket, on either side. Additionally in the AL there wasn't even any change within who would win each series. I did consider putting the Rays over the Rangers in the ALDS but I held off ... for now. I also considered giving the Baltimore Orioles a nod over the Tigers but once again I couldn't do it. I just cannot accept the fact that the Orioles are going to enter September that close to a playoff spot. They've had a great season and I continue to deny them (and likely will deny them in the future). It's the Orioles though, come on! They can't be making the playoffs, can they?

National League

The NL bracket harbored the only change this week. The Dodgers (an their massive trade) has propelled them over the Nationals in the NLDS. If Strasburg were to pitch in that series (which he won't) I would pick the Nats. The Pirates are breaking my and have fallen 2.0 games behind the Cards. It's a shame and I hope they recover but I certainly cannot predict that they will.

World Series

For the first time in the PP's I will predict the World Series.

The Rangers get back for a 3rd straight season and they have to win one eventually, right? Wrong. The Cincinnati Reds are your 2012 World Series Champions.

The Reds are the more complete team and presuming they stay healthy the rest of the way have a great chance to win their first World Series since 1990.

If the Rangers had better pitching they'd have the edge in the series. The problem is Yu Darvish appears to be wearing down. He hasn't pitched well in the second half. Ryan Dempster has been pretty terrible in Texas. Roy Oswalt has done nothing. Scott Feldman and Derek Holland both have ERAs approaching 5. The only good starter right now is Matt Harrison.

The Reds don't have a Nationals-esque rotation behind Johnny Cueto but it is still better than the Rangers.

The Rangers would hold the edge on offense and that could pose a threat to the Reds pitching staff and World Series aspirations.

All in all another heartbreaking 7 game series loss for the Rangers.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 19th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Once again, for the second straight week, there's a change in the American League. The Tigers have won a spot over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Playoff game. The A's haven't been playing as well of late and while they are only 0.5 games out of a WC spot the Tigers sit a half game behind them. The Tigers are just a much more dangerous team and because of it they get the nod this week. However I still have them losing to the Rays in the WC Playoff. For the A's it's the first time they find themselves off the bracket since July 28th while the Tigers find themselves on for the first time since that same date. There aren't any other changes in the AL. However I will mention that this is the 3rd straight week the Rangers have been given the nod as AL Champs, the longest such stretch since the PP's started five weeks ago.

Once again I cannot find it possible to put the Orioles into a WC spot. I just can't do it. They continue to stick around though and maybe, just maybe, they'll be there eventually. 

National League

The NL has seen the some of the biggest changes since the PPs started. There's movement all over the bracket.

First the Pirates have been bumped from the bracket for the first time. They had been one of the WC teams in each of the previous four weeks. The Dodgers are making their first appearance in the bracket as the winners of the NL West. They get the nod because of their play lately but also because of Melky Cabrera's suspension. The defending World Series Champion Cardinals are making their first appearance on the bracket as well. They are suddenly one game out of a WC spot and at this point it's hard to deny them a place, no matter how much I want the Pirates to make the playoffs for the 1st time in 20 years. However the Cards will still lose to the Braves in the WC Playoff. The Nationals one week reign as NL Champs is over. The Reds struggled a little bit last week which caused the change. Also the Nats continued stance on Stephen Strasburg hurts their chances come October. The Reds are therefore representing the NL for the 4th time in 5 brackets.

Starting in September I will also include predictions for who will win the World Series as that is something that has been absent in the PPs.

Ozzie Guillen Has Harsh Words (Surprise, Surprise) For Ramirez

The Miami Marlins might have been an utter disappoint in the NL East this season but their manager Ozzie Guillen continues to entertain.

His latest target, former Marlin, the Dodgers Hanley Ramirez. Guillen had this to say about his former 3B, "That's Hanley. (If) Hanley hit a home run down by 30 runs, he would pimp it. That's the way he is."

It doesn't surprise me Hanley's former manager feels this way. Ramirez is regarded around MLB as a toxic personality and influence in the clubhouse. When the Marlins were still "Florida" they disciplined Ramirez for repeatedly not hustling to first base.

Marlins trade 3B Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers

In the off-season the Miami Marlins stole all the headlines. They dropped Florida and became Miami. Construction was completed on a new, expensive, retractable roof stadium. They unveiled a new look, debuting four new uni's, in this brilliant new stadium. Then came the spending. The Marlins lavished millions upon millions on free agents, attracting some of the biggest names available to South Beach. They signed Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, among others. The latter forced the move of Hanley Ramirez to 3B, something he made very public he was not interested in. It was supposed to be a grand coming out party for the newly dubbed Miami Marlins. Instead things have gone terribly wrong.

Early Tuesday morning Ramirez was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers along with reliever Randy Chaote for SP Nathan Eovaldi and a minor leaguer.

It's a shocking move, even amidst rumors teams were lining up to acquire the SS turned 3B.

The Dodgers made their own headlines early in the season when an ownership group, lead by Magic Johnson, purchased the team from Frank McCourt. The winning big was reported to be over $2 billion.

Surprisingly the Dodgers have had a good season, much of it in first place in the NL West. They've struggled recently falling 2.5 games back of rival their, state and division, rival San Francisco Giants.

The offense has been the Dodgers achilles heel all season ranking at or near the bottom is virtually every major offensive category.

The addition of Ramirez should help, although it didn't do the Marlins much good for the first 4 months of the season. The Marlins were among the worst offenses in baseball along with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers new ownership made it clear they were willing to spend money from the very beginning and now they've dropped a ton more cash. Ramirez is due $15.5 million in 2013 and $16 million in 2014. The Dodgers are assuming the entire contract with no financial remuneration from the Marlins.

It's a surprising turn of events involving two of the franchises who made some of the biggest splashes in the off-season. Many would have expected their records to be reversed and the Marlins the buyers and Dodgers the sellers at the deadline.

It's funny how the best laid plans often change once the games are played. Ramirez and Reyes on the left side of the Marlins infield looked as though it was a sure thing. Anything is far from sure in MLB. That much is definite.

Cubbies, Dodgers Talking Dempster Deal

As is the case this time of year players names and teams are thrown around, linked and rumored to be talking. A lot of it never leads anywhere, a lot of it is just that, talking.

But sometimes the talks progress into something real. It seems as though there is some truth to the rumors that the Cubs and Dodgers have had preliminary (and positive) talks regarding one of the most sought after pitchers this trade deadline: Ryan Dempster.

Dempster will be a free agent at the end of the season and has the ability to block any deal. He has said that he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause in order to go to a contender.

The Dodgers desperately need help as theirr fall down the NL West standings (currently 2.5 back of the Giants) continues.

The offense is the major problem ranking near the bottom of the NL in most offensive categories. It is an area of concern that will surely need addressing if the Dodgers hope to make October. Pitching has been the strength of this team and it seems rather curious they would engage in talks for Dempster. The staff has the second best ERA (3.28) behind only the Nationals. However Chad Billingsley was recently DL'd with elbow inflammation. Another starter, Ted Lilly, is on the 60-day DL. Because of the injuries the Dodgers have been forced to turn to rookies Stephen Fife (who just made his first career start) and Nathan Eovaldi (who has less than 100 career IP). An added veteran presence, the likes Dempster, would surely help the Dodgers.

However without any offensive upgrades this team will continue to struggle.

Also it is still very early in the discussion. The Cubs aren't likely to make a deal 11 days before the deadline unless they are blown away. They know full well there's a whole host of clubs lining up to battle for Dempster and his 1.86 ERA.

Try as you might, Dodgers. You need all the help you can right now.

Carlos Lee is on the Move ... Finally

Over the weekend the struggling L.A. Dodgers had a deal in place to acquire 1B Carlos Lee from the Houston Astros. Instead, on Wednesday night, Lee was dealt to the Miami Marlins.

Lee nixed the deal to the Dodgers as he had a partial no-trade clause written into his Astros contract.

In Miami Lee will be reunited with his former manager Ozzie Guillen. The two spent a season (2004) together for the Chicago White Sox.

It's a curious decision to choose the Marlins over the Dodgers as Miami is mired in 4th place in the NL East, 9 games back. The Dodgers on the other hand have a 0.5 game lead over the Giants in the West. He must have chose Miami for reasons other than baseball.

The 36 year old Lee will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Astros on the Verge of Trading Carlos Lee

Carlos Lee could soon be a Los Angeles Dodger. According to reports the Astros have agreed to trade Lee they are simply waiting on his stamp of approval on the deal.

Lee has a partial no-trade clause and must accept the trade before he can be dealt.

The Dodgers desperately need the offensive help. They're 15th in the NL in runs scored and have been shutout in 4 of their last 5 games. All-star slugger Matt Kemp has only appeared in two games since May 13th and is still on the DL with hamstring issues.

It seems like a pretty simple decision to me. Lee can move from the 32-45 Astros (who are 10.5 back in the NL Central) to the 43-35 Dodgers (who are 1.0 game back in the NL West).

Unless of course there's something more important than winning ...

UPDATE (3:50 PM): According to ESPN Carlos Lee is likely to veto the deal to the Dodgers. 

Youkilis Trade Appears Imminent

Kevin Youkilis' days in a Red Sox uniform are dwindling and a number of teams appear to have some degree of interest in acquiring his services.

Most reports have narrowed the teams interested in Youkilis to the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers. The White Sox and Pirates appear to be the two most serious suitors.

Youkilis has been made expendable by the performance of rookie Will Middlebrooks. Middlebrooks has homered in 3 of his last 4 games and has 9 total for the season (Youkilis has 4). The Red Sox are 17-1 in games that Middlebrooks has recorded an RBI.

Youkilis has struggled in recent seasons with a multitude of injuries and numerous trips to the DL. His performance on the field has dipped and he doesn't appear to be the same player that hit 29 and 24 HRs in 2008 and 2009.

Youkilis is owed $12 million for 2012 and his contract runs out at the end of the season (the Red Sox do have a $13 million option that they are certain to decline, at a cost of $1 million). Any trade will almost certainly require the Red Sox to eat a large portion of what is owed to him.

The White Sox seem to be the most interested and the most logical destination for Youkilis. Brent Morel, their starting 3B, is on the DL. Prior to injuring his back he was hitting .177. Fill-in Orlando Hudson hasn't been much better, hitting .160 with the White Sox. Even though Youkilis isn't playing particularly well he'd almost certainly be an upgrade for a team that is 0.5 games out of the lead in the AL Central.

The Pirates also seem to have a serious interest in Youkilis. The Pirates are once again having a solid season and could use an additional veteran presence in their clubhouse. Their current 25 man roster has 8 infielders listed who have a combined 24 years of Major League service. A veteran like Youkilis might help the Pirates young roster from collapsing like they did in 2011. The Pirates were tied for their division lead on July 25th last season before collapsing and finishing 24 games out in the NL Central. The Pirates have shown a willingness to take on slumping veterans with expensive contracts, providing the team they are leaving pays a large chunk of that contract. In February the Pirates acquired AJ Burnett from the Yankees. Burnett was owed $31.1 million over two seasons. The Pirates managed to get $18.1 million of that off Yankees. Burnett is 8-2 for the Pirates.

The Indians, Braves and Dodgers have all contacted the Red Sox but do not seem to be seriously interested.