Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

Well the PP's aren't really premature anymore. Teams have seven or eight games left and four of five playoff spots have been decided in the NL. The AL doesn't have a clincher yet but things look to be pretty stagnant, aside from the Central.

American League

The only change this week is the Orioles are now into the ALDS after defeating the A's in the one gamer. The O's have just been playing better baseball right now. The change subsequently bumps the Tigers into a series with the Yankees. I considered putting the Tigers through but for this week I'll leave the Yankees there. Next week (the final week) I may change my mind.

National League

As mentioned the NL Playoff Bracket is 80% filled. We know the Nationals and Braves have locked up playoff spots in the East (the Braves could mathematically still chase down the Nats for the division). The Reds are the Champs in the Central. The Giants are the Champs of the West. The only thing left to be decided is the new Wild Card Spot where the Cardinals currently hold a 4.5 game edge. Seems pretty reasonable to assume they'll end up winning that spot. The biggest remaining question is who will be the NL's best? The Nats and Reds have an identical record (93-61).

World Series

Again, no changes. Five straight weeks I've taken the Reds over Rangers in 7.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 18th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

The AL is losing some of the intrigue it had a few weeks back. It's looking more and more like the A's and Orioles will end up in the Wild Card spots battling for a place in the ALDS. It continues to amaze me that both of these teams are surviving September. There's still time but I'm now a believer in both of them. I haven't been for five and a half months but with a mere 15 and 16 games left it's time to give these teams their due.

The A's are the only change this week in the AL. They push out the Rays who have dropped 6 of 7 to fall 5 games back with 15 to play. The A's will also win the one gamer against the Orioles which pushes the Tigers into the series with the Rangers. The A's have, so far, survived a brutal September and if they hold on into next week I may give them the nod over the Yankees in the ALDS. I can't do it yet, but I may.

Despite the Tigers sitting 3 games back of the White Sox I continue to give them the nod in the Central. My reasoning is simple: the Tigers are the better team. No what the records indicate the Tigers are better. Believe it. However easing my decision is the schedule for both teams. The Tigers do battle the A's this week which will be tough. After those three games though the Tigers finish with six against the Twins and seven against the Royals. The White Sox still need to make a trip out west to play the Angels and still have a series against the Rays. Both teams are fighting for their lives which could make a challenging few games for the Sox.

National League

There a lot of teams suddenly in the race in the NL Wild Card prompting many to complain about the second Wild Card rewarding mediocrity (I voiced my opinion on that here). However nothing has changed for the second straight week in my NL bracket.

The Braves are locked into the first WC 7.5 up on the Cardinals who hold the second spot. Throwing their names into contention are the Dodgers (-1.0), Pirates (-2.5), Brewers (-2.5), Phillies (-3.5), Diamondbacks (-4.5) and even the Padres have made a run (-6).

Despite all the new teams who have a realistic shot I still think it's down to two teams: Cardinals and Dodgers. For the Dodgers sake they better win the WC after their addition of $250 million + in salary from the Red Sox a few weeks ago. I don't think they will though.

The Dodgers have a tough schedule to close out. They have a series against each of the NL Divisional leaders (Nationals, Reds and Giants). They also play the Padres who, as mentioned, are suddenly in "contention" themselves. The easiest series they have remaining is against the Rockies.

The Cardinals however nine games remaining against AL Central cellar dwellers in the Astros and Cubs. They do play the Nats and Reds as well to be fair. However those nine "easy" games give the defending champs the leg up.

World Series

My prediction remains unchanged, yet again. I know boring.

Reds over Rangers in 7.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 10th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

How about the American League. There are four teams (A's, Orioles, Rays and Angels) all within two and a half games of the two Wild Card spots. It's conceivable that there could be a three, or even four, way tie for the Wild Card. That would definitely add some excitement to the already artificially created excitement of the one game playoff.

Currently the A's hold the top spot (1.5 up on the Orioles) and were a part of last week's bracket. Unfortunately for them, despite their current lead, they've been dropped in this week's bracket in favor of the Rays. The reason is simple, the A's have a very tough schedule the rest of the way. Their remaining games come against the Angels (4), Rangers (7), Orioles (3), Tigers (3), Yankees (3) and Mariners (3). The weakest team on that list is the Mariners ... and even they've been playing pretty good baseball since the All-Star Break. The other three teams in the Wild Card battle have much easier schedules. The Rays have nine games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox while the Orioles have 10 games against those same teams. The Angels have a similar schedule to the A's but they get a bit of a break in playing the Royals for three.

The Rays enter the bracket as the second WC and win the one gamer against division rival Orioles. Because the Rays are the new team into the ALDS the Rays face off against the top team in the AL (Rangers) and bump the Tigers down to face the Yankees.

My justification for continuing to leave the Tigers in as the division winners in the Central is their easier schedule down the stretch. They have 16 games against the Indians, Twins and Royals. They also play four against the team they are chasing, the White Sox, and also battle the A's. The White Sox meanwhile play the Angels and Rays in addition to the Tigers. 

National League

The NL is much more boring in comparison. The only change is the Nationals retaking 1st place in the NL back from the Reds.

World Series

The World Series also remains the same, Reds over Rangers in 7.

Could The Impossible Happen?

Yankees find themselves battling for Playoff Lives

On July 18th everything was great in Yankee land. The Bombers held a 10.0 game lead over all of their AL East rivals. Even sweeter was the fact that arch rival Boston was beginning to crumble from every inch of the organization. The Red Sox had already traded fan favorite Kevin Youkilis to the White Sox. Rumors of Bobby Valentine's (eventual) dismissal were beginning to surface. About a week later the Red Sox players held a coup - in New York during a series with the Yankees no less - to get Valentine fired. Mostly notable of those players, depending on which reports you read, was Adrian Gonzalez. At the end of August Gonzalez along with Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett (and Nick Punto to be exact but no one cares about him) were sent packing to Los Angeles.

The biggest threat to the Yankees, back on July 18th, was the Baltimore Orioles who happened to be the team that was 10 back. At the time Yankee fans were probably celebrating what they thought to be an inevitable division championship. I mean it was the Orioles and they were 10 back. No hope, done deal. Might as well give them the banner now, right?

Wrong.

The Orioles have done the remarkable. Entering play on Wednesday September 5th the Yankees find themselves in a tie for first in the AL East with those pesky birds.

Yes the season still has three weeks to play and the Yankees could once again reclaim a lead in the East. At the same time they may not.

I can't imagine many people expected the Orioles to be in this position. Even the most devout O's fan must have looked at that 10 game deficit in July and thought, "hey at least we're having a good season and maybe we'll snag a Wild Card". At that time the Orioles were 47-44 and a half game out of the second Wild Card. They'd gone 3-7 in the last ten games and appeared to be fading. It was the Orioles so of course they had to fade. They had to come back down to Earth. There was no way the Orioles could legitimately be in the playoff race, could they?

Well here we are, it's September and yes they are very much alive. The team that shouldn't be tied with the mighty Bronx Bombers somehow is.

But the Orioles can't be the Yankees only concern right now. The Tampa Bay Rays are also knocking on the door, sitting a game and a half back in the East. Not to mention the whole slew of teams that are positioning themselves in other divisional races and are likely going to be in on the battle for those Wild Card spots. We could be looking at as many as 8 teams fighting for the 5 playoff spots. The Yankees, Orioles and Rays in the East, the White Sox and Tigers in the Central and the Rangers, A's and Angels in the West. Someone is going to have to give.

But could that be the Yankees? Is it possible that a team that appeared to have secured a playoff spot in mid-July is somehow going to be on the outside looking in?

At the time the Yankees 10 game lead was almost double that of the next closest division leaders lead (Texas had 5.5 on the Angels). The 5 other division leaders at the time were Chicago White Sox, Texas, Washington, Cincinnati and San Fransisco. Now go look at today's standings (go on, I'll wait) ...

Do you notice what I noticed. Yes, that's right all five of those teams are still in the lead of their respective divisions (sole possession I might add).

Almost two months ago it seemed inconceivable that the Yankees wouldn't win the division. Now it becomes a reasonable suggestion.

Fortunately for New York the remaining schedule is quite tame. Aside from an upcoming, 4 game, weekend battle with the O's the Yankees face off against the likes of Toronto, Boston and Minnesota.

If the Yankees lose the division (and maybe even miss the playoffs) they'll only have themselves to blame.

It's hard to believe but the Baltimore Orioles could be AL East Champions for the first time in 15 years. Even harder to believe is the fact that the Yankees could miss the playoffs entirely. A notion that just might ease some of the pain in Boston.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

September 2nd - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

CHANGES! CHANGES GLORE!

That's right folks there's a whole slew of new teams in the PP's! It's September and we are inching ever closer to October Baseball and it is getting harder and harder to deny certain teams (cough, Orioles) a spot in the bracket. So I've caved and the Orioles are making their first appearance on the PP's. You know this can only mean one thing ... they'll now collapse.

Also around the American League the A's have jumped into the second Wild Card spot. They've been out for three weeks but have returned. Their play never really dropped off and they were never that far out. I just figured other teams were capable of chasing them down (I'm looking at you, Angels). But once again, just like the O's, their presence can no longer be ignored.

Another change in the bracket has seen the Tigers move out of a Wild Card spot and into the AL Central Division winners spot. The Tigers have been in the bracket five of seven weeks but this is the first time since July 28th they've been in as the division winner.

As such the White Sox had to be bumped. They've been in the bracket as the AL Central winners for five straight weeks. Also bumped were the Tampa Bay Rays. They've cooled off recently and find themselves 1.5 back in the WC.

No changes in the winners of the ALDS as the Yankees and Rangers are still the toast of the AL.

National League

CHANGES!

Not quite as many as the AL but there has been some notable movement in the NL as well.

First off I have to apologize to the Cincinnati Reds. I've had them in the World Series six of seven weeks but have always had them second in the NL to the Nationals. That changes this week for the first time. It's something I may have overlooked or it may have been something I did deliberately. Either way looking at it I couldn't believe that I had never put the Reds on top of the NL. That has been corrected and the Nationals have lost their top spot for the first time. Now on to the rest of the PP's.

Welcome back to the San Fransisco Giants. Their two week absence was in large part because of the Melky Cabrera suspension and the Dodgers massive trade. However they currently find themselves 4.5 games up on those same Dodgers and as such make their return.

The rest of the NL Bracket remains the same save for the Nationals once again pushing through to the NLCS. I'm sorry I got a little excited last week with the Dodgers trade and in that excitement I pushed them in the NLCS instead of the Nationals ... my apologies.

World Series

NO CHANGES!

I guess that's not nearly as exciting as changes.

Reds over Rangers in 7, still.

Top Stories of the First Half

With the final weekend of baseball before the All-Star break upon us let's look back at the five most interesting stories to sweep through baseball, so far, in 2012.

R.A. Dickey

How could this man not be included? In October he will turn 38 and all he's done this season is dominate the NL like he's never done before. This is a guy who a few seasons ago not only couldn't hold down a job in a rotation but struggled to say in the Majors. He bounced between franchises (Texas, Seattle and Minnesota) before the Mets finally gave him a chance at being a full-time starter in 2010. His knuckleball seems to be mystifying hitters and has allowed him to notch, an MLB leading, 12 wins. He ranks third in ERA (2.40) and first in Ks (123) in the NL. He has more strikeouts than names like Kershaw, Strasburg and Cain. His WHIP sits at a very pretty 0.93 and leads all of baseball. On June 13th and 18th he tossed back-to-back 1 hitters. He's an early favorite for the NL Cy Young. Oh and before the season even began he released a book titled Wherever I Wind Up: My Quest for Truth, Authenticity and the Perfect Knuckleball. In the book he spoke about how he was sexually abused as a child. The man's overcome a lot to have, without a doubt, the best season of his career.

 No-Hitters, Perfect Games and Cycles

These feats are impressive during any season but 2012 has already seen its fair share of them. Chicago White Sox Phil Humber started us off by tossing a Perfect Game at Safeco Field versus the Seattle Mariners on April 21. Eleven days later on May 2nd Jered Weaver tossed a no-hitter against the Minnesota Twins. Just about a month after that (June 1) Johan Santana tossed the first ever no-hitter in the 50 year history of the N.Y. Mets. Exactly a week later six Seattle Mariners combined to no-hit the L.A. Dodgers. Then only 5 days later Matt Cain tossed the second perfect game of the season versus the Giants. 

Hitters haven't been outdone though as less than a week after Humber tossed his perfect game Scott Hairston of the Mets hit for the cycle. Then in June when there was a break from pitching feats Aaron Hill accomplished one of the more remarkable feats in MLB history. On June 18th Hill hit for the cycle against the Mariners (Seattle has been involved in a lot this season already). Twelve short days later Hill was at it again hitting for the cycle against the Milwaukee Brewers becoming only the 4th player in MLB history to hit two cycles in one season, the second since 1900 and the first since 1931. If Hill were to hit another cycle in the remaining three months of the season he'd not only become the first player ever to do it but he'd also be tied atop the list of career cycles (3). 

Cycles now outnumber no-hitters 293-272. What a season we're having already. 

Washington Nationals Rotation  

First things first the Nationals have only used 6 starters all season with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson all making at least 16 starts (Ross Detwiler has made 12). Not only has the rotation stayed healthy though they've all performed. All five starters have an ERA that is lower than 3.74. Four of the five have WHIPs less than 1.16. If they continue at this pace it would be hard to imagine the Nationals not winning the NL East. They could use another bat or two in the lineup and it will be interesting to see what they decide to do at the deadline. Additionally the Nationals plan to limit Ace Stephen Strasburg's innings to 160. Hard to imagine how they'll accomplish that if the Nationals are in a playoff race. 

Here are all the starters numbers:
(W-L, ERA, WHIP, BAA, K, BB)
Strasburg - 9-4  2.82  1.10  .225  128  28
Gonzalez - 11-3  3.01  1.12  .195  112  39
Zimmerman - 5-6  2.70  1.15  .252  72  20
Jackson - 5-4  3.73  1.13  .228  76  30
Detwiler - 4-3  3.43  1.27  .249  55  26 

I'll take a 5th starter with a 3.43 ERA any day. 

Rookies  

The performance of various rookies all across MLB have caught the attention of fans and media alike. Angels Mike Trout is being hailed as the AL MVP by many. Rangers Yu Darvish hasn't been a complete flop as an import from the Japanese League and recently won the last chance vote for the AL All-Star team. Red Sox Will Middlebrooks has performed so well Boston was forced to trade fan favourite Kevin Youkilis to keep him on the field. Nationals Bryce Harper is one of the most highly touted prospects in years and at age 19 is having a solid season for the NL East leaders. Anthony Rizzo was just recently called up by the Cubs and has hit in virtually every game. Lance Lynn has moved from the Cardinals World Series winning bullpen to the rotation and all he's done is win 11 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles

Isn't it nice to see someone else atop of the standings, especially two franchises that have struggled for so long. The Orioles haven't made the playoffs since 1997 while the Pirates haven't made the playoffs since 1992. 

The Orioles started out the season strong and have held their own in the AL East all season. Right now they sit at 45-38. That's good enough for 2nd place in the East 6 games back of the Yankees. 

The Pirates on the other hand have played well as of late and have surged into 1st in the NL Central. They currently sit at 46-37 and hold a 1 game lead over the Reds. 

With the added Wildcard this season both franchises will have a realistic chance at the playoffs if they can continue their strong play. It would be nice for baseball to have an infusion of new teams into the playoffs. At first I was against the additional Wildcard but it has certainly done its job. So many teams are in contention that normally wouldn't be. I'm glad to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two of those franchises. 

Imagine they faced off in the World Series? I bet no one would have predicted that in Spring. 

That's almost it for the first half, let's hope the second half is just as interesting.