Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 26th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Alright so it's a pretty boring week for the PP's as for the first time there are no new teams into the playoff bracket, on either side. Additionally in the AL there wasn't even any change within who would win each series. I did consider putting the Rays over the Rangers in the ALDS but I held off ... for now. I also considered giving the Baltimore Orioles a nod over the Tigers but once again I couldn't do it. I just cannot accept the fact that the Orioles are going to enter September that close to a playoff spot. They've had a great season and I continue to deny them (and likely will deny them in the future). It's the Orioles though, come on! They can't be making the playoffs, can they?

National League

The NL bracket harbored the only change this week. The Dodgers (an their massive trade) has propelled them over the Nationals in the NLDS. If Strasburg were to pitch in that series (which he won't) I would pick the Nats. The Pirates are breaking my and have fallen 2.0 games behind the Cards. It's a shame and I hope they recover but I certainly cannot predict that they will.

World Series

For the first time in the PP's I will predict the World Series.

The Rangers get back for a 3rd straight season and they have to win one eventually, right? Wrong. The Cincinnati Reds are your 2012 World Series Champions.

The Reds are the more complete team and presuming they stay healthy the rest of the way have a great chance to win their first World Series since 1990.

If the Rangers had better pitching they'd have the edge in the series. The problem is Yu Darvish appears to be wearing down. He hasn't pitched well in the second half. Ryan Dempster has been pretty terrible in Texas. Roy Oswalt has done nothing. Scott Feldman and Derek Holland both have ERAs approaching 5. The only good starter right now is Matt Harrison.

The Reds don't have a Nationals-esque rotation behind Johnny Cueto but it is still better than the Rangers.

The Rangers would hold the edge on offense and that could pose a threat to the Reds pitching staff and World Series aspirations.

All in all another heartbreaking 7 game series loss for the Rangers.

AL East: Can the Rays Catch the Yankees?

There's an interesting scenario brewing in the AL East as the Tampa Bay Rays are returning to form. The Rays are winners of their last 5 and 8 of their last 10. They've cut the Yankees lead down to 4.0 games in the AL East.

The New York Yankees have been in control of the East for most of the summer (they've owned sole possession since June 12th). The four game lead they currently own going into play on Tuesday is the smallest lead they've held since June 29th.

It begs the question, can the Rays chase down the Yankees and make a race out of the AL East?

Well first of all if I've learned anything about baseball, and more specifically the Rays, it's that you can never count them out. Never mind the 9 game deficit they overcame in September 2011 to win the Wild Card on the final day of the season, what about this season? Almost one month ago (July 18th) the Rays looked dead to rights in the East sitting 10.5 games back of the Yankees. They've closed 6.5 games in just over a months time so of course they could make a race of the East and of course they could win ... but will they?

The Yankees appear to have the easier schedule the rest of the way. Both teams do play the exact same amount of games (40 apiece) with 6 against each other. The Yankees however have 22 games against teams that are out of contention. They have the Indians (3 times), Jays (10), Red Sox (6) and Twins (3).

The Rays meanwhile only have 16 games against teams out of contention, the Royals (3), Jays (7) and Red Sox (6).

In the six games difference (between the Yankees 22 games vs the Rays 16 games against teams out of contention) the Rays face off against AL West leading Texas.

So the schedule favors the Bronx Bombers. They have a four game lead and an easier schedule the rest of the way.

Will it be the difference in the East? Maybe, but don't count out those Rays.

Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

August 19th - Premature Prognostications: October Baseball

American League

Once again, for the second straight week, there's a change in the American League. The Tigers have won a spot over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Playoff game. The A's haven't been playing as well of late and while they are only 0.5 games out of a WC spot the Tigers sit a half game behind them. The Tigers are just a much more dangerous team and because of it they get the nod this week. However I still have them losing to the Rays in the WC Playoff. For the A's it's the first time they find themselves off the bracket since July 28th while the Tigers find themselves on for the first time since that same date. There aren't any other changes in the AL. However I will mention that this is the 3rd straight week the Rangers have been given the nod as AL Champs, the longest such stretch since the PP's started five weeks ago.

Once again I cannot find it possible to put the Orioles into a WC spot. I just can't do it. They continue to stick around though and maybe, just maybe, they'll be there eventually. 

National League

The NL has seen the some of the biggest changes since the PPs started. There's movement all over the bracket.

First the Pirates have been bumped from the bracket for the first time. They had been one of the WC teams in each of the previous four weeks. The Dodgers are making their first appearance in the bracket as the winners of the NL West. They get the nod because of their play lately but also because of Melky Cabrera's suspension. The defending World Series Champion Cardinals are making their first appearance on the bracket as well. They are suddenly one game out of a WC spot and at this point it's hard to deny them a place, no matter how much I want the Pirates to make the playoffs for the 1st time in 20 years. However the Cards will still lose to the Braves in the WC Playoff. The Nationals one week reign as NL Champs is over. The Reds struggled a little bit last week which caused the change. Also the Nats continued stance on Stephen Strasburg hurts their chances come October. The Reds are therefore representing the NL for the 4th time in 5 brackets.

Starting in September I will also include predictions for who will win the World Series as that is something that has been absent in the PPs.

Melky Cabrera in More Hot Water

If things weren't bad enough for Giants OF Melky Cabrera after being suspended for 50 games for testing positive for testosterone the NY Daily News has uncovered some interesting "facts". It just adds fuel to the already burning fire.

Allegedly Cabrera had a consultant who works with his agents set up a fake website for a product to somehow support his claim that he inadvertently took the substance which lead to his suspension.

MLB quickly realized what was happening and didn't fall for the fake site. Allegedly this took place in July during the fact-finding stage of the case.

Federal investigators now seem to be interested in the case.

Uh oh Melky. That big fat free agent check just keeps shrinking, don't it?

Ozzie Guillen Has Harsh Words (Surprise, Surprise) For Ramirez

The Miami Marlins might have been an utter disappoint in the NL East this season but their manager Ozzie Guillen continues to entertain.

His latest target, former Marlin, the Dodgers Hanley Ramirez. Guillen had this to say about his former 3B, "That's Hanley. (If) Hanley hit a home run down by 30 runs, he would pimp it. That's the way he is."

It doesn't surprise me Hanley's former manager feels this way. Ramirez is regarded around MLB as a toxic personality and influence in the clubhouse. When the Marlins were still "Florida" they disciplined Ramirez for repeatedly not hustling to first base.