Do The Red Sox Have a Legitimate Ace?

Pitching has been a concern for the Boston Red Sox all season. Despite the recent run of strong starts the pitching staff ranks 12^th in the American League with a 4.40 ERA and 9^th in WHIP (1.34). If Boston wants to move out of the basement of the American League East the pitching is going to need to continue to improve. Going into play on June 13^th the Red Sox starters have these stats (Daisuke Matsuzaka has only made 1 start this season and thus not included):

Stats displayed are ERA/WHIP/K/BB Ratio

Josh Beckett (4.14/1.15/3.29/1)

Jon Lester (4.47/1.36/2.48/1)

Clay Buchholz (5.38/1.53/1.67/1)

Felix Doubrount (4.34/1.42/2.67/1)

These numbers should hardly strike fear in any opponent facing the BoSox. It begs the question; are the Sox missing a key ingredient in the rotation?

In order to succeed in MLB it is imperative a team has an Ace. Does the Boston rotation possess a pitcher who fits that billing? Well first let’s define the Ace as someone who is: a) a consistent performer b) has the ability to dominate for long stretches c) A Cy Young competitor/winner. There are certainly some names that will come to mind from around the Majors. However for the sake of this article I’m going to define the role even further. To be considered a pitcher must have made at least 100 career starts. Additionally the pitcher must have started one of his team’s first two games in 2012 (unless on the DL). If there is more than one pitcher that fits into these requirements the Opening Day starter was used. The Red Sox rotation has three pitchers that meet the requirements and I’ll look at all three to determine the potential Ace.

Stats are all career numbers, same stats as above

Josh Beckett (3.85/1.22/3.11/1)

Jon Lester (3.61/1.30/2.47)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.27/1.40/1.91/1)

It doesn’t come as much surprise that Dice-K is out of the running for the label “Ace”. Beckett and Lester each have solid numbers and could make a case for being named the Ace.

Before I continue here are the teams that don’t possess a pitcher who fits the requirements (or have a pitcher that does but whose career stats are worse than Beckett and Lester’s stats).

Orioles, Indians, Royals, Twins, A’s, Rangers, Cubs, Astros, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Padres.

Now look at that list and tell me how many of those teams have succeeded without an Ace. The only team on the list that has had any sustained success recently is the Texas Rangers. They don’t have a pitcher that fits the billing, however they lost C.J. Wilson to the Angels in the off-season. He would have fit the requirements. Also the Rangers continue to get career performances from guys like Colby Lewis. Additionally this season the Rangers acquired Yu Darvish and converted Neftali Feliz into a starter. Both potentially could be considered Aces in the future. Every other team on that list has had little or no success in the past few seasons.

Now on to the teams that DO have a Starting Pitcher that fits the requirements of an Ace.

Yankees, Jays, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Giants and Dodgers.

Note: You may have noticed the Nationals do not appear on either list. This is because they have Stephen Strasburg, definitely an ace, who has only started 29 games in his career.

There is a lot more success among these franchises. There seems to be a trend emerging here.

For the 16 franchises that have “Aces”:

11/16 have a lower career ERA than Lester

15/16 have a lower career ERA than Beckett

14/14 have a lower career WHIP than Lester (2 have the same)

8/16 have a lower career WHIP than Beckett

13/16 have a higher career K/BB ratio than Lester

5/16 have a higher career K/BB ratio than Beckett

So what do these numbers mean? Who is the Red Sox Ace?

If you ask me it doesn’t matter who you call the Red Sox Ace. Both Lester and Beckett have a strong claim. The problem is neither compare relatively well to the top pitchers in the game. Therefore in my mind the Red Sox lack a true Ace, one that measures up against the Halladay’s, Verlander’s and Kershaw’s of baseball.

The Red Sox have spent a lot of money the last few years addressing the offence. Maybe it’s time they had a look at the top of the rotation instead.